Stat of the Day, 1st April 2015
It was a case of so near, so far yesterday. Or, more correctly, so Neary. Tom Neary, a 5/1 chance, led pretty much all the way, and had his main market rivals beaten turning in. Only the 7/1 outsider of four remained over the last two hurdles and, as you know, the selection folded a little tamely to be beaten on the run in.
There were 42 lengths back to the third, 11/8 favourite Gun Shy, and I felt like we’d done the hard work only to get chinned. A frustrating run despite a reasonable nomination.
Despite a lot of racing, I was struggling a bit to find one with a solid chance and the stats to match. That one is Lily Little Legs, a game mare who is better than her form over fences looks.
First, the stat: Ian Williams course form since 2009 is 12 wins from 50 runs (24%), and another 9 places (42% place rate). That’s been worth a profit of 18.6 units win only.
Lily Little Legs (LLL hereafter) is the youngest in this field, and she was a good second to Lily Waugh two starts back. Her run last time out looked to be a winning one until she crumpled and fell three out. That race has been franked with the second, the only subsequent runner from it so far, going in on Monday.
LLL won her only previous start at Towcester, a maiden hurdle this time last year on similar ground and over a similar trip. And, with doubts about the second favourite Alder Mairi’s ability to handle fastish ground (all three career wins on heavy), I think Lily is a smidge of value, even at 9/4. Despite my ground reservations Alder Mairi is taking support so do make sure 9/4 is still the top price on Lily Little Legs by…
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