Stat of the Day, 2nd April 2015
Both Chris and I know that eyebrows are raised when we nominate relatively short-priced horses for Stat of the Day, and we only do it when we consider the price available to be a value one. That was the case yesterday when I felt Lily Little Legs had an excellent chance: certainly better than the 9/4 available. This was on the basis of her own level of form and the fact that I was happy to oppose the well backed second favourite.
As it turned out, LLL ran as if amiss. She travelled well but stopped to a walk after turning in and was pulled up soon after.
The nature of Stat of the Day is that, even after a run of clunkers and frustrations, we can still get right back on track with a single winner; and without going for a ‘hail mary’ selection either. On another uninspiring day, one I do quite like the look of is Ascendant. He runs in a two mile Class 3 handicap hurdle at Ludlow on good to soft ground. And his form at the track reads 11.
When trainer Johnny Farrelly and jockey Robert Hawker team up they tend to do rather well. In fact, since the start of last year, they’ve partnered on 23 horses, with five of them winning, for a profit at SP of 10 points, and at Betfair SP of over 15 points.
Hawker’s three rides on the selection have resulted in a form string of 241, with the 4th being in a field of 18 and at odds of 25/1 and the win being at 12/1. He clearly gets a good tune from Ascendant.
I’m against the favourite, Bombadero, who is terribly short at 6/4. He’s only won one of his seven races in today’s grade, and the form of that win is working out awfully (no wins from 18 subsequent runners, just four places). Handicap debutant, Foxtail Hill, is more interesting if fit after a break; but the selection has everything in his favour this afternoon, and looks a bit of value at a general 4/1. One point to win.
As always, be sure that’s still top price by…
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