Double Dutch, 3rd April 2015
A winning double yesterday. Or, at least, three-quarters of one: a dead heat in leg two deprived us of the full ticket. But at 2/1 and half stakes for 5/1 it was worth a profit of 2.5 points on the day.
Two meetings to go at today, and they’re both highly competitive…
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Leoncavallo: WON at 6/4 (adv 2/1)
Rewritten: 6th at 13/8 (adv 11/4)
L’Amiral David: 5th at 9/4 (adv 7/2)
Princess Ombu: WON (Dead Heat) at 5/1 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
534 winning selections from 1869 = 28.57%
166 winning bets in 484 days = 34.3%
P/L : +105.27pts (+10.88% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Treacherous but exciting racing today, and we’ll have a cut an All Weather Championship double, starting in the Sprint…
This is a very good battle between the established form of Chookie Royale, and the emerging talent of Pretend, though of course it’s a far deeper event than just that pair.
Chookie Royale is an uncomplicated sort: he pings out of the traps and just keeps rolling (very quickly). Though he’s been beaten on all four Lingfield runs, this is the first time he’s dropped back as short as six furlongs here, and as a trailblazer that must help. He’s the highest rated in the field and looks capable of running close to his mark of 113. He’ll need to.
Pretend is one of many Charlie Appleby improvers on show this afternoon, and he has improved a stone on ratings since November. His 109 figure is the second best in the field, but I’ve little doubt he can improve to match Chookie’s current peg. The problem for this chap is that he’ll need some luck in running due to his closing style. There might be plenty of good horses in his way, which is why he’s a perfect bet for Double Dutch: he’s the most likely winner, but traffic jams could unstick him.
A similar race, both tactically and in terms of depth. Sovereign Debt is a closer but the most likely winner on form; while Captain Joy should get the run of the race and is plenty good enough.
Sovereign Debt has been beaten – running on too late – on both his starts at Lingfield, and Paul Mulrennan has paid the price for those misjudgements. He’s replaced by Adrian Nicholls, the trainer’s son. Clear top rated on 109, as with the sprint for leg one, he races off levels today, which means he’s best in at the weights. There’s little doubt he’ll be rattling through late, and the return to a mile is in his favour, but Nicholls will need to engage the sat nav to thread a path through traffic, I suspect.
If he does get held up, Captain Joy is an attractive proposition. Tracey Collins’ 6yo was impressive when winning over course and distance in a fast track qualifier in January, and had a nice prep at Dundalk four weeks ago. You can be sure he’ll have come on plenty for that, and as a prominent runner, jockey Pat Smullen can stalk the likely fast early fractions (set by Tigers Tale and Solar Deity) from his trap one draw. I’ve backed this one in a single as well as in the double.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Pretend/ Sovereign Debt @ 9/1 (6/4 & 3/1: bet365)
Pretend / Captain Joy @ 16.5/1 (6/4 & 6/1 : bet365)
Chookie Royale / Sovereign Debt @ 25/1 (11/2 & 3/1 : bet365)
Chookie Royale / Captain Joy @ 44.5/1 (11/2 & 6/1: bet365)