Stat of the Day, 4th April 2015
Oh dear. Yesterday was an almighty clunker, and a classic case of barking up the wrong tree. True, things didn’t go to plan – the slow pace and softer than advertised ground were against my pick. But, even under optimal conditions, it’s hard to believe he’d have troubled the judge. The stats led me in the wrong direction, and I steered you similarly errantly. We lost a point, and move on, chastened, frustrated, but with our mission the same as it always has been.
My last day in a fortnight stint that started so well, but has fizzled out disappointingly (for me, at least). I will of course try to leave on a high note, and I’ll be relying on an old friend of SotD for that purpose, in the…
Ralph Beckett is a trainer to keep on side in most circumstances, and especially so at Kempton.
Beckett’s record at the track since 2009 reads 389 runners for 83 wins, and a profit of 97.8 points at SP. In the last 30 days, Raiffy has been in form too, notching three winners from 13 runners, with two of those winners coming in the last two weeks.
His sole entry this afternoon is Mr Bossy Boots, a winner of three of his four all weather races, all at today’s trip of seven furlongs. This will be his first trip to Kempton, and it represents a step up in grade too.
Beckett’s record with fancied (up to 5/1) last time out winners when stepping them up in class on the all weather is very strong: 14 winners from 38 runners (37%) and a profit at SP of 8.05 units. At Betfair SP, that rises to 12 points.
Mr Bossy Boots has only had five career starts, four on the all weather, and he’s won three of those AW spins. He’s progressive, has fitness and freshness on his side after a win at Wolves in late January, and is well drawn in four to be close to what could be a muddling pace. I hope he’ll run very well, and a general price of 4/1 looks a touch of value.
As always, be sure that’s still top price by…
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