SotD : Monday 06/04/15

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 6th April 2015

Hi everyone, I’m back from my annual Spring break, during which you were well looked after by Matt, who himself was probably the only person critical of his performance. The March/April crossover is notoriously difficult (that’s why I go away! 😀 ) and with a bit of luck, Matt could have given you plenty of winners.

He did, of course, give several decent-priced (double digit odds!) winning bets, but was unfortunately unable to sign off with a winner, as Mr Bossy Boots seemed to have a little too much on his plate coming from the rear to be denied by a length and a quarter, finishing 4th at 7/2, a price which vindicated Matt’s assertion that 4/1 seemed to offer some value.

Hurdles action in Wales is my first offering for the month, and more specifically the…

12.30 Chepstow:

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Where Dan Skelton’s Mister Grez is priced at 4/1 BOG in his bid to land a third successive win over hurdles.

Dan’s not been training for too long, but he’s already one that I look out for. I like to follow trainers who you can back blindly in the Evens to 12/1 odds range and not have to worry too much about identifying certain races or conditions and Dan’s hurdlers certainly fit that bill with 42 winners from 177 runs (23.7% SR) producing 49.1pts profit at an ROI of 27.7% to date.

Dan’s record here at Chepstow already stands at 4/16 (25% SR) for 11.2pts (+69.8% ROI) profit with a record of 4/10 (40% SR) for 17.2pts (+172% ROI) with his hurdlers here.

In a bid to keep Mister Grez‘s weight burden down, 5lb claimer Sean Bowen takes the ride, but don’t let his claim fool you, Sean’s no mug at all. His record to date is 38/233 (16.3% SR) for 36pts (+15.5% ROI) profit and he’s been in sparkling form (121114) of late. He’s 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 57.8pts (+304.4% ROI) here at Chepstow, with six of those winners coming from the 9 races (66.7% SR) coming when he has been claiming his 5lb allowance, netting a massive 60.8pts profit at an ROI of 675.4%.

Mister Grez is more than useful over fences (3 wins and 6 places from 16), but seem s to like these novices hurdles and comes here with a 2/2 record. Both wins came in his last three runs (sandwiching a runner-up finish over fences here a month ago), the latest of which was a 4 length victory at Taunton a fortnight ago.

That last outing leads me to tell you Dan Skelton’s runners turned out with 4 to 15 days of a top 4 finish have won 21 of 64 (32.8% SR) races for profits of 28.2pts (+44.1% ROI) with LTO winners doubling up on 9 of 22 (40.9% SR) occasions for 7.7pts (+35.1% ROI) profit.

Mister Grez is obviously penalised for recent form, but he still looks relatively well treated opposed to his mark over fences and I’d be foolish to ignore the obvious claims of a horses that has made the frame in each of his three visits to Chepstow, who is 2212 on good to soft ground and boasts a record of 5 wins from 8 runs at today’s Class 4 level.

Not all firms had opened the book on this race at 10pm on Sunday evening, but Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook were all showing 4/1 BOG, so that’s the price we’ll be taking about Mister Grez.

As always, be sure that’s still top price by…

…clicking here for the betting on the 12.30 Chepstow

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Here is today’s racecard.

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