Double Dutch, 6th April 2015
Another close shave on Saturday, but despite a 4.3/1 exacta and a winner and two runners-up from the day, no double landed, I’m afraid.
Tango de Juilley led Barafundle home as Matt expected at Carlisle, but the early start had already taken an early bath, as AP was unable to get Ifandbutwhynot any closer than 6 lengths off the leader at Haydock.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Ifandbutwhynot: 2nd at 9/2 (adv 4/1)
Village Vic: PU at 9/4 (adv 3/1)
Tango De Juilley: WON at 5/4 (adv 5/4)
Barafundle: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 6/4)
The exacta paid £5.30 here.
Results to date:
536 winning selections from 1877 = 28.56%
166 winning bets in 486 days = 34.16%
P/L : +101.27pts (+10.42% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Maller Tree stayed on strongly to win by 2.5 lengths at Newton Abbot on Saturday and provided that run hasn’t emptied him out, he stands a good chance of going in again today. He does bear a 7lb penalty for that win, but jockey Shane Quinlan’s 5lb claim negates much of that and 5/2 BOG doesn’t look too bad for a horse that previously won twice in two days last April, so this might be his optimum time!
The main danger is likely to come from the well-bred Mazurati, who is a half-brother to high-class hurdler Asian Maze and very smart chaser Quantitativeeasing. His best run to date came last time out on his handicap debut when a little unlucky to bump into the progressive Pagham Belle and despite conceding 22lbs to the winner, was only denied by half a length late on, but looks well set for a first win soon and Stan James’ 4/1 BOG looks very tempting indeed.
When I first looked through the cards, I noted this race in my notebook as…“7 declared, 6 run, should be a three horse race…”. If I’ve read it right, that means I’ve just to omit one of Crazy Jack, Steel Summit & Oscartara and we’re good to go, as the Americanadians would say. 😀
And the one I’m leaving out is Steel Summit, despite his four wins in a fortnight around Christmas time. He now looks in the grip of the assessor and I think he’s still a good half stone higher than he’d like to be.
Crazy Jack is both consistent and lightly raced and represents a yard and jockey both in decent form and both with good records on this track. He’s a former chase and PTP winner, so neither jumping nor stamina should be called in to question and he looks relatively well treated for his return to handicap company off a mark of 118 and could well take this at 11/4 BOG.
At 7/2 BOG with Stan James, Oscartara is a bit more of a punt and we’re taking on trust what kind of mood he comes here in. He either runs pretty well or doesn’t finish, I’m afraid, but like the main selection, he’s fairly lightly raced and has winning form over PTP fences, if not in a chase itself. To say he ducks out of too many races might be unfair though.
Closer inspection shows that the 3 P’s in his last 7 outings have all been at 2m4f and beyond and he had only been withdrawn late in the contest. perhaps today’s 2m2f might suit him better, as he clearly found 2m too sharp at Catterick last time, getting outpaced into 2nd place on the run in.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Maller Tree / Crazy Jack @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Boylesports, Paddy Power & Betfred)
Maller Tree / Oscartara @ 14.17/1 (5/2 & 10/3 : Bet365, Boylesports & Paddy Power)
Mazurati / Crazy Jack @ 17.75/1 (4/1 & 11/4 : Stan James)
Mazurati / Oscartara @ 21.50/1 (4/1 & 7/2 : Stan James)