Stat of the Day, 7th April 2015
There may well have been some luck involved in getting Mister Grez into the winners’ enclosure on Monday, but the record books will show a 2/1 win from a horse we all backed at 4/1 to give our post-Easter push a flying start.
The record books will say that he won by nine lengths, but the truth is that the race was far from won (but definitely hadn’t been lost either!), as he had a length to find on the leader going over the last hurdle. The leader buckled on landing and the race was ours.
We may or may not have deserved the actual win, but it’s swings and roundabouts in this game and that one made up for bad luck we’ve had in the past and will no doubt encounter again!
And on to Tuesday and more specifically, the…
A Class 5, A/W handicap for 3 yr olds over six furlongs and the chance of yet another winner for Charlie Appleby with the 9/4 BOG shot Hills And Dales, who was last seen finishing second here over course and distance, beaten by two lengths 11 days ago, having already scored on his only other attempt over course and distance.
Charlie’s horses are flying at the moment and in the last five weeks 24 of his 50 runners (48% SR) have been winners, generating level stakes profits of 33.2pts (+66.4% ROI) along the way, but Charlie’s no flash in the pan either, as you can make money from following him over the longer run too.
Charlie’s first handicapper on the A/W was Taleteller on the 5th August 2013 and if you’d backed that horse and the subsequent 162 Appleby A/W handicappers blindly, you’d have landed yourself 56 winners from 163 (34.4% SR) and a £10 stake on each would have brought in £358.70 profit at an ROI of 22%. Here at Lingfield, that record stands at 15 winners from 40 (37.5% SR) for 15.8pts (+39.5% ROI) profit.
If you wanted to halve the number of bets placed, you could stick to the lucrative 6/4 to 9/2 price banding, where Charlie’s runners have won 29 of 81 (35.8% SR) contests for profits of 35.7pts (+44.1% ROI), of which Lingfield has contributed 11 winners from 23 (47.8% SR) for 25.1pts (+109.1% ROI) profit.
The fact that Hills And Dales was a recent placer is also good news as this bring into play some more facts/stats about the Appleby runners, who have a 37.1% strike rate (53 winners from 143) when running 4 to 15 days after a top 4 placing last time out. These runners have generated level stakes profits of 26.3pts at an ROI of 18.4% and today’s conditions are optimal for these qualifiers.
On the A/W, the record is 32 winners from 67 (47.8% SR) for 24.3pts (+36.2% ROI) with the handicappers performing the best from a profit perspective, winning 16 of 34 races (47.1% SR) and producing profits of 20.6pts at an ROI of 60.6%.
Hills And Dales runs off the same mark of 72, as when beaten by just two lengths last time out, but Marc Monaghan’s very useful 5lb claim will help to make him really competitive again here, hopefully culminating in a victory at the widely available price of 9/4 BOG.
As always, be sure that’s still available by…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS