Double Dutch, 7th April 2015
Monday was a good day for me to return to the fray, as we were rewarded with a couple of winners to boost the pot a little.
Maller Tree got the ball rolling with a 5 length victory at Huntingdon for his second win of the weekend, aided by his main rival falling at the penultimate hurdle in shades of the earlier SotD race whilst our second pick Mazurati was pulled up two from home.
This meant we went to Market Rasen with all to play for and despite Oscartara unseating his rider 4 out, we were proven right to omit Steel Summit, as he could only manage third, behind our main pick Crazy Jack, who was returned a winner at 11/4, slightly longer than we’d advised.
All of which gave us a cracking start to the week with a 12.13/1 double. (Those doing the DD/SotD trebles had a 64.6/1 payout!)
Monday’s results were as follows:
Maller Tree: WON at 13/8 (adv 5/2)
Mazurati: PU at 9/2 (adv 4/1)
Crazy Jack: WON at 11/4 (adv 5/2)
Oscartara: UR at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
538 winning selections from 1881 = 28.60%
167 winning bets in 487 days = 34.29%
P/L : +105.83pts (+10.87% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Less racing to aim at for Tuesday, but I’m hopeful of a return from these late afternoon A/W contests…
2014 was a good year for Don’t Have It Then, as he won 4 times and made the frame a further five times from just twelve runs over today’s trip (3 wins & 3 places from 7 on the A/W) and provided he’s ready to fire after a 150-day break from action, he’ll be looking to pick up where he left off in December.
He was beaten here over course and distance (but has won over C&D) by just half a length two starts ago (the winner Varsovian is 12411 since!), but then ran out a winner at Kempton, beating five subsequent winners in the process. If ready first time up, Don’t Have it Then looks a good prospect at 7/2 BOG in a race where there are questions about most of his rivals…
…including what might be a bit of a punt at 5/1 BOG with Betbright on last season’s French import Oeil de Tigre, who might now actually be racing at the right trip & level after six efforts on turf and A/W in the UK and Ireland. His best run to date was at Wolverhampton last time out in his first contest dropped down to today’s Class 4 grade, when beaten by 3.5 lengths in a tight finish, where he’s have been much closer to winning had he seen the full 7 furlongs out.
It is expected that the drop back to 6 furlongs will be the key to him getting into some kind of form, but it’s very interesting to see Richard Hughes in the saddle today. It’s a positive step in my eyes, not only for Richard’s obvious ability to get a bit more from his runners, but also because the Carroll/Hughes combination is a fairly rare thing.
At first inspection, I liked the chances of Subtle Knife here, despite her being on a losing streak of 22 races since a victory at Kempton back in August 2012, but the re-opening of this track seems to have revitalised her and three of her last four runs have been here and she has finished 233 in those three C&D contests. In what doesn’t look too great a contest, a similar kind of effort should at least put her in the mix and at 4/1 BOG, she could offer some value.
However, we should remember that she usually finds at least one just too good for her and it’s highly likely that the 2/1 BOG favourite Berrahri is going to prove to be the one to beat today. He comes here in sparkling form, having finished 131 in his last three outings, all over today’s trip and the latest was a course and distance victory here almost three weeks ago, when he comfortably beat the re-opposing The Happy Hammer.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Don’t Have It Then / Berrahri @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : Bet365)
Don’t Have It Then / Subtle Knife @ 20.67/1 (10/3 & 4/1 : Ladbrokes)
Oeil de Tigre / Berrahri @ 15.50/1 (5/1 & 7/4 : Betbright)
Oeil de Tigre / Subtle Knife @ 26.50/1 (9/2 & 4/1 : Ladbrokes)