Double Dutch, 9th April 2015
Lears Rock was withdrawn around 9.30 on Wednesday morning, throwing a potential spanner ion the works and reducing the price of Rain Wind and Fire down to 6/4 from our advised 15/8 BOG. I did say that he’s still be worth a bet at that price, especially with the defection of his main rival and so it proved, although he made very hard work of it, just getting home by a neck, with the third placed a similar distance further back.
This was great news for us, as Simple Verse had earlier led Marmion home by three parts of a length for a DD 1-2 and a modest 4.2/1 exacta, as our pair finished a good 14 lengths clear of the pack. All of which left us with a 0.5pt double at 5.56/1 and a 0.5pt single at 6/4 for an overall profit on the day of 3.53pts (we don’t count the forecasts etc).
Without the Rule 4 deduction, the profit would have been 3.27pts, so the non-runner actually did us a favour. Gold Members who did the DD/SotD double were rewarded with a 45/1 treble and if you’d like to take a 14-day trial of Gold for just £5.00, click this link!
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Simple Verse: WON at 5/4 (adv 13/8)
Marmion: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 13/8)
Rain Wind and Fire: WON at 11/10 (adv 6/4 after 20p R4)
Lears Rock: non-runner (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
540 winning selections from 1888 = 28.60%
168 winning bets in 489 days = 34.36%
P/L : +107.36pts (+10.98% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Wednesday’s racing looks pretty awful to be frank, but there’ll be 30 winners out there today. We only want/need two of them! So, let’s try…
It’s a brave man that takes on a fancied Charlie Appleby runner at the moment with his string winning 28 of 54 (51.9% SR) races over the last five weeks, netting followers 19.92pts profit (+71.1% ROI) at Betfair SP and probably a good deal more at early BOG prices! This, of course, makes Rosenbaum the likeliest winner of this contest. He’d ran perfectly well at 9 and 10 furlongs, but always seemed to need/want more and when trying this 1m4f trip for the first time three weeks ago, it brought about further improvement.
He won a touch easier than the 1.25 lengths official margin would suggest and the form has been partially franked by the runner-up Galileano finishing second again since, but beaten by another of Charlie’s runners! I think this is Rosenbaum‘s race to lose and if he takes to the new surface, looks a good bet even at 11/8 BOG.
If, however, he’s not comfortable on this track, then I’d expect Sirens Cove to be the main beneficiary at 11/4 BOG. She was consistent if not spectacular over trips of 6 and 7 furlongs and she also needed to step up in trip to land a first win, which she achieved at Chelmsford a fortnight ago, when tackling 12 furlongs for the first time.
In all fairness, even that seemed a little short for her and she only just got home, beating Charlie Appleby’s Leoncavello by just half a length. Leoncavello then went on to beat the above mentioned Galileano to tie all the collateral form up together. The extra 2 furlongs should help Sirens Cove today and she could make this very interesting.
Vesperal Dream is 1133111 in his last seven outings and 1131 over hurdles. He’s hasn’t finished improving yet and looks well set to extend that great run of form with another win at 11/8 BOG here. Conditions look ideal for him too, as he has a win and a runner-up finish from two runs on this track, he’s 21331 in his last 5 runs on good ground, the trip is ideal fore him, he’s 3/5 on right handed tracks and 4/6 in small fields. A clear run should mean another win.
Pure Style looks to be the biggest danger at 7/2 BOG and comes here hopefully refreshed after a break and with a record of three wins and a runner-up finish from just six runs over the last year or so. He’s a former course and distance winner who has no problems carrying weight (3/3 at 11-9 and above). He also performs best in these small fields and we could end up with a bit of a tactical battle on our hands.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Rosenbaum / Vesperal Dream @ 4.64/1 (11/8 & 11/8 : Betvictor)
Rosenbaum / Pure Style @ 9.29/1 (11/8 & 10/3 : Betvictor)
Sirens Cove / Vesperal Dream @ 7.91/1 (11/4 & 11/8 : BetVictor & Paddy Power)
Sirens Cove / Pure Style @ 15.25/1 (11/4 & 10/3 : Betvictor)