Double Dutch, 8th April 2015
Tuesday was unable to provide us with a repeat of Monday’s successes, but it did serve to remind of how fine the margins are between victory and defeat in this fascinating sport we all love so much.
As it was, we came very close to landing a 21/5/1 double, but Don’t Have It Then could only finish third despite getting to within a nose and a neck of the winner, having set off for home possibly a little too late, as he was finishing strongly when the line came.
And then, just ten minutes later Subtle Knife was held off by just a head, as he failed to get away with conceding 11lbs to the winner. So close, yet so far!
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Don’t Have It Then: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Oeil de Tigre: 6th at 9/2 (adv 5/1)
Subtle Knife: 2nd at 7/2 (adv 4/1)
Berrahri: 4th at at 13/8 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
538 winning selections from 1885 = 28.54%
167 winning bets in 488 days = 34.22%
P/L : +103.83pts (+10.64% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Wednesday’s racing looks pretty awful to be frank, but there’ll be 30 winners out there today. We only want/need two of them! So, let’s try…
Just five go to post for this one and of the three newcomers on show, Marmion should fare best. He’s by Cape Cross and is a half-brother to several winners, including useful 1¼m-2m winner Rosslyn Castle and winner up to 1¾m Magog. His mother was a winner up to 1½m (won over 1m as a 2yr old), including the 2002 Irish Oaks and is an interesting debutant for the in-form Gosden team at 6/4 BOG.
The one with prior experience most likely to challenge should be the 13/8 BOG chance Simple Verse, who has shown promise in each of her two starts to date, the latest being a 3rd place finish over 1m3f at Kempton a fortnight ago.
She was beaten by less than two lengths that day and was only a nose behind runner-up Aussie Andre who has since stepped up to this 1m4f trip and won by over three lengths and it is anticipated that the extra furlong will benefit Simple Verse here today.
Ralph Beckett’s runners tend to go well here at Kempton and in Lears Rock, he has a horse that was both consistent and progressive last year with finishes of 444223, before taking a 4 month break from action. He returned to the fray at Lingfield almost seven weeks ago to win by a length and a half, showing plenty of early pace that would suggest the drop back to 7 furlongs might suit him even better. If he gets out quickly and is able to lead, then the 4/1 BOG on offer from Betfair Sportsbook might look generous later.
To double up, though, he’ll have to see off the 15/8 BOG fav Rain Wind and Fire, who was a winner on his debut (& only run to date) at Lingfield over today’s 7f trip six weeks ago, despite being drawn 9 of 9 and racing a little too wide and too freely early on. It took a while for the penny to drop that day for him, but once he got to grips with the job in hand, he fairly flew home late on to win.
He really should come on for having had that run and from stall 3, should be able to be kept handy until an effort is needed. Provided he isn’t outpaced early on, he’d be my likeliest winner here tonight.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Marmion / Rain Wind and Fire @ 6.61/1 (13/8 & 19/10 : Betbright)
Marmion / Lears Rock @ 10.81/1 (13/8 & 7/2 : Betbright & Stan James)
Simple Verse / Rain Wind and Fire @ 6.55/1 (13/8 & 15/8 : SkyBet)
Simple Verse / Lears Rock @ 10.81/1 (13/8 & 7/2 : Bet365 & SkyBet)