Stat of the Day, 8th April 2015
The Charlie Appleby bandwagon rolled on yesterday as he picked up another two golds and a bronze from his three runners, and the SotD pick Hills And Dales was one of those winners, taking Charlie’s record to 26/53 in the last five weeks.
Our pick looked a little green and reluctant to go by the leaders until late and he wandered about a bit too, giving me a little cause for concern, but his 5lb claimer jockey did a good steering job to get him home by a length and a quarter.
The icing on the cake came in the shape of a 0.75pt drift out to an SP of 3/1, serving once more as a reminder to use BOG bookies!
So, after tough times of late for both Matt and myself, the hat-trick opportunity is upon us. Unfortunately, Wednesday looks woeful and despite having some decent stats to back up today’s selection, you’d be forgiven for thinking I was having a wild stab at the…
…where I’ve taken what I think might be a big 6/1 BOG about Ian Williams’ 3 yr old gelding Convicted. Yes, I know he’s not even made the frame in any of his seven starts to date, but this is a shocking race that he looks weighted to win if approaching it in the right manner.
His best run came last time out, when finishing fourth at Wolverhampton over 1m4f, but had led inside the final furlong before weakening and fading out of contention. He drops back a furlong and carries 4lbs less here today, which should make him really competitive in a field of runners that doesn’t know how to win (0/44 is the combined tally!).
His jockey, James Doyle, however, knows how to win at Kempton and comes here having ridden 2 winners from 5 in his last two days “at work”. Longer-term, he he has a decent record in A/W handicaps here at Kempton, winning on 22 of his 75 rides priced at 8/1 or shorter since the start of 2013. This 29.3% strike rate has so far yielded 43.8pts profit at an ROI of 58.3%.
Ian Williams also tends to do well enough here by the Thames and in A/W handicaps in general. Since the start of 2011, his record in A/W handicaps is 76 winners from 483 (15.7% SR) for profits of 131.4pts (+27.2% ROI), with those running here at Kempton winning 23 of 106 (21.7% SR) for 28.5pts (+26.9% ROI). His runners at this track priced at 6/1 and shorter (where I’m sure we’ll end up!) are 20/53 (37.7% SR) for 33.7pts (+63.6% ROI).
Convicted is Ian’s only runner of the day, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll not get his costs covered, as since 2008, Ian’s sole runners of the day at odds of 5/4 to 12/1 have triumphed on 84 of 456 (18.4% SR) occasions, generating level stakes profits of 53.4pts at an ROI of 11.7%.
Those figures are best on the A/W, where his single entrants are 31/156 (19.9% SR) for 43.4pts (+27.8% ROI), with male runners here at Kempton scoring on 7 of 29 attempts (24.1% SR) for 22.5pts (+77.5% ROI) profit, of which there’s a 6/19 (31.6% SR) return for runners priced in the 11/4 to 7/1 banding, producing 17.3pts (+91.1% ROI) profit.
It’s not a good race and it shouldn’t take much winning to be honest. A drop in trip and weight mean that if Convicted runs like he did last time out, we should should be celebrating a winner at 6/1 BOG, a price currently on offer from Bet365, Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power.
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