Stat of the Day, 9th April 2015
James Doyle was absolutely superb aboard Convicted at Kempton on Wednesday evening. He got out quickly to grab the inside rail and then controlled the tempo of the race from the front. He brought the pack down to a snail’s pace, before kicking for home, getting first run and staying on to win by three parts of a length.
It doesn’t get much better than that, does it? Oh yes, it does, when you’re collecting 6pts from a 7/2 shot. Thanks very much, Mr Doyle.
Like Wednesday, I’ve found it tough to find a suitable stat-based selection, and the one I’m going with is another that might not immediately jump out at you in the…
A 6f, Class 6 handicap on the all-weather and a 3/1 BOG bet on Pabusar, who carries top weight here off a mark of 60. He’s clearly not the force of old and hasn’t won for quite a long time, but he was a former Group/Listed standard horse, running decent races off marks of over 100.
It’s fair to say that he had lost his way and a succession of trainers tried (and failed) to get him back into some kind of form, but it has taken a recent move to Heather Dalton (now his 5th handler!) to get him looking like a potential winner again. He only moved to Heather a month ago and she has already raced him twice here at Southwell, suffering two narrow defeats, beaten by 0.5L & 0.75L in the space of a week when just slightly outpaced late on over 5 furlongs.
He steps back up to 6 furlongs for this one and I think that’s the right thing to do now that he seems to have his racing mojo back.
And now the stat bit!
Relatively short & sweet today, but Since 2010, top rated (OR) males aged 3 to 109 in Southwell A/W handicap races over 6 furlongs and beyond are 120/336 (35.7% SR) for 50.9pts (+15.1% ROI) profit when occupying one of the top two places in the odds market.
Of those 336, those whose last run was 6 to 45 days ago are 91/254 (35.8% SR) for 52.8pts (+20.8% ROI), whilst those who either won or were beaten by less than two lengths last time out are 74/188 (39.4% SR) for 29.3pts (+15.6% ROI).
Put the two together and those who either won or got within 2 lengths of the winner 6 to 45 days ago are 57/148 (38.5% SR) for 28.4pts at an ROI of 19.2%, with those whose last run was here at Southwell over the same trip or are stepping up a furlong like Pabusar winning 30 of 70 (42.9% ROI) for 14.1pts (+20.1% ROI).
Convicted might have seemed an unlikely winner on Wednesday, so I’m hoping lightning strikes twice with a bet on Pabusar at 3/1 BOG. At least six bookies are offering this price, but…
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