Stat of the Day, 10th April 2015
Pabusar was pretty convincingly beaten at Southwell on Thursday afternoon and the late headway he made only really served to make a poor run look slightly better than it was.
After three good results, one could argue we were due a clunker and that’s what we got: 6th place and beaten by a good 11 lengths or so, despite being sent off as the 5/2 favourite.
We did, as we often do, beat the market by half a that was scant reward really and I’ll not be rushing out to back this one next time!
Late night action awaits us on Friday with the last race of the day aka the…
Which is a Class 6 handicap on the Tapeta for 4yr olds and older over a trip that is technically 8.64 furlongs and where our selection, Hickster, once again looks surprisingly long at the 7/1 BOG on offer from Betfair Sportsbook.
Hickster is trained by Roy Bowring, a trainer who I do like to keep an eye on, especially on the All-Weather. Roy isn’t the most high-profile, most prolific or busiest trainer on the scene, but if you’d backed every one of his runners over the last six years, you’d have made yourself as pound or two.
More specifically, 96 winners from 890 runners is a reasonable enough strike rate of 11.2%, but sticking a tenner on each of them would have given you £2730 profit, which is a return of 31.7% on top of your outlay.
In handicaps the figures are 86/741 (11.6% SR) for 254.5pts (+34.3% ROI) and more pertinently/relevant, his A/W handicap runners priced in the 2/1 to 6/1 price banding (which is where we’re sure to end up!) have 30 wins from 109 (27.5% SR) for 52.6pts (+48.2% ROI) with a record reading 9/28 (32.1% SR) for 23.6pts (+84.4% ROI) here at Wolverhampton.
Hickster has won three times already from just seven efforts here at Wolverhampton and if we exclude a couple of runs at 28/1 and 33/1, where little was expected of him, his results here read 31121, the last of which was also his most recent outing when he virtually made all and just hung on to win by a short head. That was over 9.5 furlongs 18 days ago and the drop back in trip today should make his task a little easier here.
He will be partnered by Ashley Morgan who gets to use his 3lb claim and Roy Bowring is pretty good at placing claimer jockeys on his runners and in the last six years, 3lb claimers have triumphed on 19 of 104 occasions in A/W handicaps with that 18.3% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 48.2pts at an ROI of 46.4%, with those priced at 2/1 to 12/1 proving the most successful with 17 wins from 57 (29.8% SR) for 59.6pts (+104.5% ROI), of which there has been 7 winners from the 25 (28% SR) contests here at Wolverhampton, returning 37.4pts (+149.5% ROI) profit.
Hickster hasn’t got the best draw, but our unique pace analysis suggests that he won’t have too competition for an early lead and if allowed to dictate from the front as he did last time out, he can be difficult to catch and/or pass as he proved here almost three weeks ago.
I think there’s plenty of value in that 7/1 BOG from Betfair Sportsbook, I was expecting to see him at around 9/2 if I’m honest, but…
…as always, do check that’s still available by…
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