Aintree TV Trends: Sat 11th April 2015

 

The three-day Aintree Grand National Meeting continues today with the ‘big one’ the Crabbie’s Aintree Grand National – the channel 4 cameras will be showing 5 LIVE races.

Horse racing trends expert Andy Newton gives you all the key stats for all the main LIVE Channel 4 races……

SATURDAY 11th April 2015 (C4/RUK)

1.30 – The Aintree Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f CH4

11/12 – Raced 39 days or less ago
11/12 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
10/12 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
8/12 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
8/12 – Placed in the top three last time out
8/12 – Raced in the Supreme (3), Neptune (4) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
4/12 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/12 – Favourites to win (2 joint)
4/12 – Won their last race
3/12 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/12 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/12 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 3 runnings)
13 of the last 17 winners were either fav or 2nd fav
12 of the last 18 winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival

2.05 – The Doom Bar Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

12/12 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
12/12 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
12/12 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the market
10/12 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
10/12 – Ran within the last 35 days
9/12 – Placed in the top three in their last race
9/12 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
7/12 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/12 – Won by either AP McCoy (2), Ruby Walsh (3) or Barry Geraghty (2)
5/12 – Favourites that won
4/12 – Won their last race
3/12 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/12 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 4 runnings)
1/12 – Irish-trained winners
Since 1989 there have been just 1 Irish-trained winner – 2013
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 5 winners and 7 runners-up
17 of the last 20 winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season

 

2.50 – The Silver Cross Stayers’ Hurdle (Reg as the Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y CH4

11/11 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
10/11 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
10/11 – Ran within the last 28 days
9/11 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle
9/11 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
8/11 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
7/11 – Won their last race
6/11 – Favourites to win (5 odds-on)
5/11 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/11 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/11 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
1/11 – Number of Irish-trained winners

 

3.25 – The Betfred Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f CH4

11/12 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
10/12 – Had run within the last 35 days
9/12 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
8/12 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the market
7/12 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
6/12 – Unplaced in their last race
3/12 – Won their last race
2/12 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/12 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/12 – Ridden by AP McCoy
2/12 – Favourites that won
0/12 – Number of Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 18 winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14 of the last 18 winners were aged 10 or older
No Irish-trained winner in the last 38 runnings

4.15 – Crabbie’s Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m3f110y CH4

Grand National Trends (Last 23 Runnings)

– 24/24 – Ran no more than 55 days ago

· 23/24 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before

· 23/24 – Officially rated 137 or higher

Your first 30 days for just £1

· 22/24 – Aged 9 or older

· 22/24 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before

· 19/24 – Carried 10-12 OR LESS

· 19/24 – Ran no more than 34 days ago

· 19/24 – Returned a double-figure price

· 18/24 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting

· 17/24 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before

· 15/24 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS

· 14/24 – Finished in the top 4 last time out

· 13/24 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old

· 13/24 – Aged 10 years-old or younger

· 13/24 – Placed favourites

· 12/24 – Won by an Irish-bred horse

· 8/24 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out

· 7/24 – Trained in Ireland (inc 4 of the last 9 years)

· 6/24 – Ran in a previous Grand National

· 5/24 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite

· 4/24 – Won last time out

· 2/24 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies

· 2/24 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh

· 0/24 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS
Aintree Grand National Facts

· The last horse to win with more than 11-6 was Red Rum in 1977

· Since 1977, 113 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just one winner – Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012

· 10 of the last 14 winners were bred in Ireland

· Only 1 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961

· The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940

· The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was Red Rum in 1974

Grand National Trends (12 Year)

12/12 – Had won over at least 3m previously
12/12 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
11/12 – Ran less than 50 days ago
10/12 – Officially rated 137 or higher
9/12 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
7/12 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
7/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
5/12 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
5/12 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
6/12 – Experienced on the National fences
4/12 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
3/12 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
2/12 – Won their last race
2/12 – Won by the McCain yard
The average winning SP in the last 12 renewals is 28/1

 

 

 

Trainers Quotes

FREE TRIAL: TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 19 TOP STABLES EACH DAY – Sent direct to your in-box!

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *