Double Dutch, 10th April 2015
As expected Rosenbaum proved good value even at my advised 11/8 odds yesterday, leading the field a merry dance to beat our second pick Sirens Cove by 6 lengths with their nearest challenger another 10 lengths back. It was the ideal start to our teatime double and came with the added bonus of a 3/1 exacta (every little helps!).
So, our focus switched to Taunton, where the favourite Vesperal Dream had drifted alarmingly out to 3/1 from 11/8 and the money was spot on, as he ran a real clunker as the last of five finishers, beaten by over 70 lengths and over 40 lengths adrift of 4th place!
Our other runner Pure Style had also drifted slightly from 10/3 to 4/1, but ran well enough to lead until 2 out, but lost any hope of winning by clattering the last on his way to a 4.5 length defeat.
The money on the day for the winner was spot on in the end and salt was added to my wounds in the form of Bridget Andrews riding the winner. I really like this 5lb claimer, I think she’s got real talent, but I just didn’t fancy the horse. You can’t win them all!
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Rosenbaum: WON at Evens (adv 11/8)
Sirens Cove: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 11/4)
The exacta paid out at 3/1 here.
Pure Style: 2nd at 4/1 (adv 10/3)
Vesperal Dream: 5th at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
541 winning selections from 1892 = 28.59%
168 winning bets in 490 days = 34.29%
P/L : +105.36pts (+10.76% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Friday is upon us already, so let’s kick the weekend off with these…
Both Java Rose and Maller Tree come here looking to complete hat-tricks, but with the former coming off a 134 day break and carrying top weight having been raised 7lbs for her last win, she’s overlooked in favour of Maller Tree who runs off the same 110 mark as when winning by 5 lengths at Huntingdon on Monday and having also triumphed last Saturday, now seeks a 6-day hat-trick and at 9/4 BOG, the bookies think he’ll pull it off.
Maller Tree is unpenalised for that last win, as it came in a conditional jockeys race, where today’s jockey Shane Quinlan was on board claiming 5lbs. Shane’s claim today is 7lbs, so providing recent exertions haven’t emptied the tank, the horse looks well treated today.
As a backup, I’m going to bypass Java Rose completely and side with Kublai on the evidence of his last outing, when he was only beaten very late on by a very progressive Nicky Henderson horse after a change of tactics to race more prominently. His yard have a good record on this track and despite that 5 length defeat last time out, he looked a decent sort with the rest of the field a good way behind him.
On ability, I’d have to say he’s second best to the main selection, but if Maller Tree hasn’t got enough left to win this, I’m more than happy with Kublai at 5/2 BOG.
But for coming back off a break of 130 days, the consistent Fast Scat would probably be a bit shorter than her current odds of 11/2 BOG with Betfair, but if ready to go fresh, she’ll be the one to catch based on her prior exploits here on the tapeta. She was narrowly beaten into third place in both of her last two outings here and both off today’s mark of 55 and both over today’s course and distance.
There’s every chance she’ll have come on again over the winter and providing there’s no rustiness, she could well provide some value at the bottom end of the weights today, but it’s highly likely that she’ll have to deal with the 9/4 BOG On The Tiles along the way. This one was only touched off by a head behind a horse completing back to back course and distance wins last time out.
On The Tiles had made virtually all that day, but was headed very late on and had the rest of the pack a fair way back. He’s the form horse here and with the apparent lack of a flying finisher this time around, he could very well hold on to his lead if allowed to boss things from the front.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Maller Tree / On The Tiles @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : Hills)
Maller Tree / Fast Scat @ 18.50/1 (9/4 & 5/1 : Betvictor & Hills)
Kublai / On The Tiles @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : Hills & Skybet)
Kublai / Fast Scat @ 20/1 (5/2 & 5/1 : Betfred)