Stat of the Day, 11th April 2015
As expected/predicted, Hickster was sent off somewhat shorter than the 7/1 BOG advised odds or even the 6/1 that many of you had to settle for, as he was backed in to 4/1 at the off. I also suggested he’s want to get out quickly from his wide draw and attempt to make all, which he did.
Unfortunately, just like his last race, he was overhauled inside the final furlong despite dropping back in trip and once headed weakened away to finish third, four lengths off the leader. Hindsight is a wonderful, but even so, I still think it was a good bet under the circumstances.
They say that you should try to get back on the bike/horse very quickly after a fall, so we’re staying put for Saturday’s race, the…
A Class 3 handicap over the very same 8.5f as Friday’s race, where I’m siding with the 4/1 BOG Santefisio, who was impressive in defeat last time out in defeat when finishing second in the Lincoln Trial five weeks ago. He was only beaten by three parts of a length over this course and distance that day and had some decent sorts in amongst the eight runners he beat.
He now drops down a grade to compete here at Class 3 level, aiming to give his trainer Keith Dalgleish yet another A/W handicap success to add to his record of 60 winners from 351 (17.1% SR) runners that has produced 86.9pts level stakes profits at an ROI of 24.8% to date. Those sent off in the 2/1 to 10/1 bracket are 46.240 (19.2% SR) for 73.7pts (+30.7% ROI).
Keith also enjoys plenty of success when dropping his horses down a grade like Santefisio does today, clocking up 53 winners from 339 (15.6% SR) for 83.3pts (+24.6% ROI) since 2011. Of those 339 runners, there’s a 34/191 (17.8% SR) record producing 77.8pts (+40.8% ROI) over trips of 7 to 11 furlongs inclusive, whilst his A/W runners are 27/91 (21.7% SR) for 62.3pts (+64.3% ROI).
His A/W runners dropping a grade and running 7 to 11 furlongs are 15/58 (25.9% SR) for 70.5pts (+121.6% ROI).
This is clearly a slightly easier task than Santefisio faced last time and with many of his main rivals coming off breaks from action, recent C&D experience might play a big part here, as might the booking of the vastly experienced Jamie Spencer to take the ride.
Jamie very rarely rides for Mr Dalgleish, so it’s interesting to see him here if nothing else and Jamie’s own record here is excellent. Since 2008, in Class 2 to 5 handicaps here at Wolverhampton, Jamie has ridden 45 winners from just 188 rides (23.9% SR) and a tenner on each of those runners would have made you a cool £358 at an ROI of just over 19%.
They’re great returns from blindly following a jockey, but if you were a little more restrictive about price, you could do much better, By simply avoiding odds-on bets and those 7/1 or longer, you cut out 36.2% of the runners but only 20% of the winners and you increase the bottom line by over 35%! In numerical terms, that’s 36 winners from 120 (30% SR) for 48.4pts at an ROI of 40.3%.
More recently, Jamie’s figures at those odds over the last two years are 11/25 (44% SR) for 27.72pts (+110.9% ROI) profit.
Once again, I think there’s a bit of juice in the 4/1 BOG on offer from Bet365, BetVictor & Hills for Santefisio, but…
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