Double Dutch, 11th April 2015
My fears about Maller Tree not seeing out a third win in six days was realised as he was unable to respond to being headed in the closing stages, before finishing third, beaten by just over three lengths. Thankfully I’d been right to avoid Java Rose who who was the last of five finishers, 22 lengths behind our selection Kublai.
Both Kublai and Maller Tree attracted support and went off shorter than my advised 9/4 odds, as did the winner of race 2, On The Tiles who managed to hold on this time to prevail at 13/8 (from 9/4) in a tight finish where just over two lengths separated the first six home. Fast Scat, on the other hand, was a disappointing 10th of 11 runners, beaten by 18 lengths or so.
The upshot of all this was a welcome return to winning ways and a further reminder of the importance of taking the early BOG price. Two winners at 9/4 gave us a 9.56/1 payout, whereas SP returned a measly 6.55/1 and accepting that is just leaving money on the table.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Kublai: WON at 15/8 (adv 9/4)
Maller Tree: 3rd at 15/8 (adv 9/4)
On The Tiles: WON at 13/8 (adv 9/4)
Fast Scat: 10th at 11/2 (adv 5/1)
Results to date:
543 winning selections from 1896 = 28.64%
169 winning bets in 491 days = 34.42%
P/L : +108.64pts (+11.07% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Last DD of the week, so I hope to end the first week after Easter in style with these…
The favourite has won this race on five of the last seven runnings, suggesting that my shortlist should comprise of Quintus Cerialis and Fullon Clarets, which is where I was heading anyway!
Quintus Cerialis brings the best form to the table, albeit from pre-Christmas, when he showed steady progression on turf with a run of consistent performances. Jockey Adam Kirby has a good record here at his track and trainer Clive Cox does well when switching runners from turf to All-Weather for the first time. This doesn’t look the strongest of heats and Quintus Cerialis could well land this at 2/1 BOG, if race-ready after a break.
Fullon Clarets, however, has had the benefit of a post-break outing, having reappeared at Doncaster two weeks ago after 192 days away from the track. He clearly needed the run that day and I’m not convinced he saw the 7f out either. His three previous (and decent enough) efforts were at 5 and 6 furlongs, so the drop back in trip should help today.
Fullon Clarets is already rated at 80, so is well treated off level weights and with his yard in such good form of late, looks to have a decent chance at 5/2 BOG here today.
Just under a year ago, Azure Fly took a break of just over four months after 4 bumper races and 12 hurdles contests to come back in September 2104 as a chaser. He finished 134212 in six efforts at this grade over fences before running at the Cheltenham Festival. He didn’t complete that day, being pulled up after a mistake four out once the pressure was beginning to be applied by superior horses.
I’m happy to ignore that run and now dropping right back to Class 3 level, he looks the class horse in this field. Ground conditions, field size and track direction are all in his favour and he’d be my pick at 2/1 BOG, even if the market disagrees with me! The danger for his rivals is that he likes to get away and dominate from the front and if doing so, could turn this into a procession.
That market, however, tends to suggest that Sin Bin is a more likely winner and there’s no doubt that he could well be a serious contender here, if the first time blinkers help to settle him into some form of rhythm.
There’s no doubt that he has ability, but he’s 0/6 over fences and looks a difficult horse to handle. Paul Nicholls’ horses do tend to improve when wearing headgear for the first time, but I’m really only taking Sin Bin at 2/1 BOG as a backup, because I don’t really fancy either of the other two here!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Quintus Cerialis / Sin Bin @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : Betway & SkyBet)
Quintus Cerialis / Azure Fly @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : generally)
Fullon Clarets / Sin Bin @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : BetVictor & Hills)
Fullon Clarets / Azure Fly @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : BetVictor)