Stat of the Day, 13th April 2015
Santefisio was weaker in the market than I’d expected on Saturday, being sent off at 9/2 after I’d advised a 4/1 bet and his/our race was pretty much over before it began, I’m afraid.
He completely fluffed the start and was always playing catch-up from the back. He did make some headway and finished strongly, but was beaten by 3 lengths back in 5th place and that was the nearest he got to the leader all race, suggesting he’d have had a great chance, but for conceding so much ground early on.
It was a disappointing end to a good week that saw us land 3 winners and 10pts profit and I’m hoping for another similar week starting with the…
It’s actually a little early in the Flat season for me just yet, but on a day where I’ve not much to work with, there are some impressive numbers and some value in the price for Lears Rock.
He is trained by Ralph Beckett who has his horses in fine form at present with 3 wins and a place from last week’s seven runners, whilst Ralph’s a man you can back blindly and make long-term profit.
Since 2008, sticking a tenner on each of his 2834 (decent sample size!) runners would, of course, have set you back over £28,000, but the returned profits of £5934 are an increase of 20.3% on your investment, courtesy of a 16.1% strike rate (456/2834).
400 best per year from one trainer might be too much for some of you, but an easy cut-off is to just back his handicappers priced above 3/1, but below 12/1. This gives 106 winners from a far more manageable 789 bets (13.4% SR) and profits of 147.9pts at an ROI of 18.8%.
Here at Windsor, Ralph’s record is 32/183 (17.5% SR) for 54.2pts (+29.6% ROI) profit, which is very creditable indeed. Those runners sent off shorter than 12/1 are 30/126 (23.8% SR) for 72.5pts (+57.6% ROI), of which handicappers are 18/68 (26.5% SR) for 69.4pts (+102.1% ROI).
Ralph Beckett’s handicappers here at Windsor in the 3/1 to 12/1 banding are 13/53 (24.5% SR) for 71.1pts at an ROI of 134.1%.
Pat Dobbs is in the saddle today and it will be just the 16th time he has ridden for Mr Beckett, but 5 prior winners represents a good start (33.33% SR) and the 4.76pts profit is a handy 31.8% return already. With a simple 8/1 odds cap imposed, Pat is 5/11 (45.5% SR) for Ralph, generating 8.76pts (+79.7% ROI) profit, with a 2/4 (50% SR) for 8pts (+200% ROI) record in handicaps.
Lears Rock won nicely at Lingfield last time out and has been running consistently well since his debut nine months ago. Coming here in decent nick for a yard in form makes me think that he’s a little overpriced at 6/1 BOG with Bet365, but…
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