Double Dutch, 13th April 2015
Quintus Cerialis was a non-runner in our opener on Saturday which reduces both our chances of victory and the odds of our remaining runner in the contest. This 25% deduction meant that Fullon Clarets became a 15/8 bet, which was still considerably better than his winning SP of 11/10, as he scored pretty comfortably by over two lengths.
This gave us a chance of landing some profits down at Chepstow, but in a 4-runner race, where only three finished, we had the second and the third home! You just couldn’t script it, as the longest priced of the trio carried top weight to an 8 lengths victory.
These things happen from time to time, there’s no point complaining about it, we just move on.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Fullon Clarets: WON at 11/10 (adv 15/8 after 25p R4)
Quintus Cerialis: non-runner (adv 2/1)
Sin Bin: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 2/1)
Azure Fly: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
544 winning selections from 1899 = 28.65%
169 winning bets in 492 days = 34.35%
P/L : +106.64pts (+11.84% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
The new week starts with typically poor Monday fayre, but we’ll hopefully of the winners of these hunter chases…
You don’t see many horses making their racecourse debut at the age of 11, and even fewer of them are installed as 7/4 BOG favourites! However, that’s trhe position here with Crazy Diamond today. Mind you, he is 4/4 in point to point races (all this year too!), which gives us some indication about both his jumping and his stamina being up to scratch here and on a track where favourites are profitable to follow in non-handicap chases, he’s my pick for this one.
My alternate is another racecourse debutant (all those with racing experience have really poor form lines!) from the opposite end of the spectrum, the 6 yr old Kalastar who has won 3 of 6 PTP contests in the last 13 months (including his last two) and seems to be improving with each run.
Young trainer Katie Scott won this race two years ago and has a decent if fledgling record here at Kelso. Of the 12 chasers she has sent here, 1 refused to race, 4 have won and 4 others have been placed, making Kalastar an interesting prospect at 100/30 BOG.
Lord Fingal is another in-form hunter chaser who comes here looking for a third successive victory, having beaten the re-opposing Corrig in a PTP at Lingstown five weeks ago, before going on to score by seven lengths in a similar race to this at Downpatrick three weeks ago. He beat another of today’s rivals, Asithappens into 5th place by 21.5 lengths in a race suggested to not be of too great a standard.
Despite the lack of apparent quality in the race, a horse can only beat what he’s presented with and Lord Fingal ran and jumped well, he made all and was very comfortable on his way to the line and probably has much more to give, hopefully resulting in a victory at 5/2 BOG.
As a backup, I’m going to take the afore-mentioned Asithappens, despite that disappointing run last time out. Prior to that he had won back to back PTP races, including a victory over the re-opposing Vaxalco five weeks ago. He holds many of today’s rivals on collateral form and at 6/1 BOG, not only represents an ideal alternative to the favourite, but looks a tad overpriced.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Crazy Diamond / Lord Fingal @ 8.19/1 (13/8 & 5/2 : Paddy Power)
Crazy Diamond / Asithappens @ 17.38/1 (13/8 & 6/1 : Paddy Power & SkyBet)
Kalastar / Lord Fingal @ 13.08/1 (10/3 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Kalastar / Asithappens @ 30.50/1 (7/2 & 6/1 : Bet365)