Stat of the Day, 14th April 2015
Pat Dobbs gave Lear’s Rock a fantastic and enterprising ride at Windsor to brighten up a dull Monday afternoon. He broke very smartly from stall 4 and made the most of the hesitation from those inside him to quickly get over to grab the rail.
He then proceeded to pretty much make all, taking the shortest route around the course hugging the rail before breaking clear of the pack in the final furlong to win by the best part of two lengths at a very healthy SP of 5/1, with early backers making an extra point from our 6/1 advised odds.
April is turning out to be quite profitable for us, thanks to seeking out value selections and I’m looking for more of the same from Tuesday’s…
Where I’ve just taken 5/1 BOG on the 7 yr old gelding Purple Harry, who seeks to make it back to back wins, after getting off the mark at the 10th attempt when winning a novice handicap hurdle at Newcastle 18 days ago.
The precedent at play here is that since 2008, male handicap hurdlers running after a break of 16 to 25 days since a win in a novice hurdle went on to win again on 79 of 381 (20.7% SR) occasions, recording level stakes profits of 139.2pts at an ROI of 36.5%.
They’re decent enough numbers from blind backing, but they can be improved further by focusing on those runners priced from 6/4 to 9/1, where the stats read as 71 winners from 278 runners (25.4% SR) for level stakes profits of an impressive 138.4pts (+49.8% ROI) with the average bet coming in at around the 5/1 mark.
Purple Harry is trained by Tina Jackson, who you may or may not have heard of before today and if I’m honest, I didn’t know a lot about her myself before this evening!
Tina, however, has done OK with her small string of runners and whilst it’s not totally reliable to use small samples of data to formulate your bets, if they are used to backup a solid main stat like the one above, then you should be fine with the following…
Tina’s record with handicap hurdlers is 8 winners from 69, which is a respectable 11.6% strike rate and the 67.9pts profit are equivalent to 98.4% of all stakes invested. Tina has had most joy with those handicap hurdlers sent off at odds of 7/4 to 17/2 with 5 winners from 16 (31.25% SR) and 15.3pts profit (+95.4% ROI).
Purple Harry has been gradually improving this year as he has been stepped up in trip, finishing 432 before making all to score by the best part of three lengths at Newcastle last month. He has been raised 8lbs for that win, which might seem a little harsh, but the booking of a 5lb claimer to take the ride will enable him to remain competitive.
He actually raced a little wide last time out and if kept on a tighter line this, then could well easily defy that extra weight here and win again at the 5/1 BOG on offer from BetVictor, a price that is currently being matched by Bet365, Betfred and Totesport, so we should all be able to get on at that price, but…
…please, do check that’s still available by…
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