Double Dutch, 15th April 2015
Two winners, a runner-up beaten by a short head and a non-runner was the return from Tuesday’s selections, so not a bad day all round.
It was admittedly all centred around some fairly short-priced selections further reduced by a 30p Rule 4 deduction caused by Abi Scarlet’s withdrawal, which brought our winning 6.88/1 double down to 5.3/1, but we did get the compensation of a 13/8 single. Obviously we’d have made more profit had the placings been reversed in that race, but beggars can’t be choosers!
Those doing the forecasts were also rewarded with a 4.9/1 success in race 2.
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Spitfire: WON at 11/10 (adv 7/5 after a 30p R4!)
Abi Scarlet: non-runner (adv 7/2)
Vodka n Tonic: WON at 11/8 (adv 13/8)
Classical Art: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
The forecast paid £5.91 here.
Results to date:
547 winning selections from 1906 = 28.64%
170 winning bets in 494 days = 34.28%
P/L : +107.10pts (+10.85% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
It was good to back to winning ways on Tuesday and I’ll look to follow up with these for Wednesday…
Sacrificial clearly sets the standards from those here with racecourse experience, having made the frame four times in five starts and suffering very narrow defeats as as runner-up in large fields on his last two outings. He was only beaten by a short head last time out and is dropped 3lbs down to a mark of 87, which might prove a little generous as the 4th placed horse from his last run has won two of three starts since and has finished third in a Listed race. All of which suggests it might finally be his day at 2/1 BOG.
The potential barrier to his success could well be the unraced and similarly 2/1 BOG priced Gulf of Poets from the flying Dermot Weld stable. The yard’s recent strike rate is at 60% over the last 2 weeks (12/20) with all 12 winners ridden by Pat Smullen who has picked this one today at the expense of stablemate Tuk Tuk. Gulf of Poets is by Oasis Dream, whose progeny have also been amongst the winners of late and there’ll not be too many raised eyebrows, should this one become the latest victor.
Ridgeway Storm is 2/2 over course and distance and drops down in class from his last effort here when winning by 2 lengths 11 days ago. He had the re-opposing Saborido as couple of necks further back in 4th place and he now comes here with a form line reading 131331 over the last six months. He’s currently priced at 2/1 BOG to land this, but I feel he’s be odds on but for the presence of…
…a 13/8 BOG favourite in the shape of Wakea, whose trainer Jeremy Noseda has had his string firing for a few months now and also has an excellent record at his track. He also fares well with horses dropping in class. Wakea was a beaten favourite last time out at Chelmsford, but seemed like the trip was too short, giving the impression that the step up to 2m would be more suitable and this move allied to a switch back to a track he has already won at, could be all that’s needed to resume winning ways, not that a record of 41212 is bad!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Sacrificial / Wakea @ 6.50/1 (2/1 & 6/4 : Bet365)
Sacrificial / Ridgeway Storm@ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : Paddy Power)
Gulf of Poets / Wakea @ 6.50/1 (2/1 & 6/4 : Bet365 & Betfair Sports)
Gulf of Poets / Ridgeway Storm @ 7.25/1 (2/1 & 7/4 : Bet365 & Betfair Sports)