Stat of the Day, 15th April 2015
Purple Harry ran an OK sort of race at Carlisle on Tuesday, but was a bit flat in the middle section before staying on from 2 out to close the gap that had opened up between himself and the leading pair.
The problem was that he’d already lost the race by that point, but dug deep to finish the 3m1f quite strongly in third place, having made up plenty of ground to get within a couple of lengths off the runner-up.
OK runs don’t put points on the board, though, so we’ll need a little more from Wednesday’s runner, who goes in the…
And a 7/2 BOG wager on Team Skelton with Long House Hall, who made a winning UK/yard debut, when landing a 2m 3f handicap hurdle by 8 lengths at Market Rasen nine days ago,all of which will become relevant shortly.
Firstly, both Dan & Harry Skelton are in good touch of late, Dan has saddled up 12 winners from 51 in the past month, whilst Harry has ridden 8 winners from 39 in that same period. Together they are 7/34, to continue their excellent record together, details of which you’re probably already aware, so I’ll spare you those figures at least!
Dan Skelton only had his first runner nineteen and a half months ago, but his record in NH handicaps has been excellent with 55 winners from 277 runners (19.9% SR) yielding level stakes profits of 13.6pts at an ROI of 4.9%. The profit margins might be low, but they are from blind backing every runner and we always look for a better angle! 😀
We can immediately focus on Dan’s hurdlers and this improves the figures to 23/121 (19% SR) for 18.6pts (+15.3% ROI) and if we then only considered those in my usual starting price range of evens to 12/1, we have 23 winners from 97 runners (23.7% SR) for 42.6pts (+43.9% ROI) from a very manageable average of 5 bets per month. Incidentally Harry’s contribution to that 23/97 record is 16 winners from 70 (22.9% SR) for 46.4pts (+66.3% SR).
Another positive from his win last time out is that male handicap hurdlers who won by four lengths or more last time out in the previous 3 to 60 days have gone on to double up on 221 on 867 occasions (25.5% SR) for profits of 178pts (+20.5% ROI) since the start of 2012, Dan Skelton is 3/7 with such horses.
Also, it’s worth noting that when Dan turns a horse back out within 4 to 15 days of a top four finish, he has been successful 23 times from 67 attempts (34.3% SR) for 31.4pts (+46.8% ROI) profit with those sent off between evens and 7/1 winning 19 of 48 (39.6% SR) for 32.5pts (+67.7% ROI). Those in that price bracket who won last time out are 8/18 (44.4% ROI) for 11.3pts (+62.9% ROI) profit.
As I said earlier, Long House Hall is 1/1 in the UK and 1/1 for Dan Skelton. He’s also 2/6 over hurdles, 2/5 on good ground, 2/3 in a hood and 2/3 when tongue tied. This is a slight step up in trip and class, but he was so comfortable last time out, that I fancy him to take this at 7/2 BOG, a price available with Betfred, BetVictor, Coral & Totesport, but as always…
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