Stat of the Day, 16th April 2015
Team Skelton were at it again at Cheltenham on Wednesday afternoon as Long House Hall absolutely hosed up to win by 16 lengths without even having to be ridden. He’d been turned out quickly ahead of a hike in the weights, which is now likely to be massive, so don’t be surprised if he doesn’t run again within the next few days.
He was even a bit keen early on and had to be restrained, so might still have more to come over a longer trip, but that’s not for me to call. All I can say is that it’s another 3.5pts in the bag as this purple patch continues with the added satisfaction of beating SP by half a point.
Same location for Thursday’s pick, but a longer trip over bigger obstacles in the…
Where I’m backing A Good Skin at 9/2 with Stan James (please note, SJ are non-BOG until 10.00am, but I think this will shorten & 4/1 BOG is widely available), as the horse bids to win back to back chases in the space of a fortnight.
He’s trained by Tom George, whose record in handicap chases since the start of 2011 with horses priced in the 2/1 to 8/1 range reads 70 winners from 354 runners with the 19.8% strike rate giving rise to level stakes profits of 69pts at an ROI of 19.5%.
When today’s jockey Paddy Brennan is in the saddle, however, the results are even better. 56 winners from 247 represents a 22.7% strike rate and the 83.2pts profits are 33.7% return on your money, which is hardly surprising as the team are profitable to back blindly over fences.
Since 2010 the George/Brennan/Handicap Chase equation looks like this at all odds : 84/442 (19.9% SR) for 47.33pts (+11.22% ROI), which is nice little thing to keep an eye out for. They excel at Classes 3 & 4, they do really well around this type of trip, but more importantly, they just make money!
I said at the top of the piece that A Good Skin was a winner a fortnight ago: that was at Ludlow, when he beat Loose Chips by three parts of a length, but don’t be fooled into thinking that was a hard race to win for him. He hit the last fence quite hard when 4 to 5 lengths clear, lost his momentum and idled on the run in and was still able to repel the challenger.
A step up in trip and something to challenger him should bring more out of him today.
And then there’s the knowledge that since 2008, Tom George’s handicap chasers who won their last race in the previous 30 days went on to win again on 18 of 79 (22.8% SR) occasions for level stakes profits of 13.4pts (+16.9% ROI), so there’s another tactic to look out for.
Those such runners who ran at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 won 15 of 58 (25.9% SR) for 17.3pts (+29.8% ROI), while Paddy Brennan rode 15 winners from 51 (29.4% SR) for 21pts (+41.2% SR) and when Paddy was riding a 6/4 to 7/1 shot, he was successful 14 times from just 40 efforts, a fantastic 35% strike rate yielding 29.8pts profit at an ROI of 74.4%.
The George/Brennan alliance is in good nick, landing a couple of winners last week before a narrow defeat with Saint Are finishing runner-up in the Grand National and they had a 6/1 success here at Cheltenham on Wednesday with their only runner of the day, Whats Happening.
Stan James are currently best priced at 9/2, but that won’t go BOG until 10.00am, but I’m taking that now, because I think A Good Skin will contract in the market, but if you want/need the BOG security, 4/1 BOG is readily available and I’ll be using that for official results.
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