Double Dutch, 18th April 2015
Friday wasn’t a good day to be honest as we failed to land a single winner despite three of our four picks making the frame. We got second and third in the opener, but our runners were beaten by 3.5 and 7 lengths respectively and never really looked like winning.
This meant that race 2 was a pride salvaging mission, but the third fence from home was the breaking point for our hopes. That’s Ben was pulled up at that point and Popaflora finally relinquished the lead to the eventual winner who went on to beat our pick by just over three lengths.
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Ooty Hill: 2nd at 13/8 (adv 15/8)
Winters Moon: 3rd at 5/2 (adv 15/8)
Popaflora: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 5/2)
That’s Ben: PU at 7/2 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
550 winning selections from 1918 = 28.68%
171 winning bets in 497 days = 34.41%
P/L : +104.85pts (+10.55% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Last chance this week to put some more money in the bank…
It’s hard to see beyond Ivawood here, for whom soft ground at Newmarket in October’s Group 1 Middle Park Stakes proved the only thing between him and a perfect 4/4 record as a 2yr old. He was caught on the line and lost by a nose, having previously won comfortably on better ground.
The two horses who finished 5th and 6th that day were 2.75 & 3.25 lengths further back and both have run and won since, notably the former, Kool Kompany, who landed the Group 3 Craven Stakes this week, making Ivawood the likely winner her at 13/8 BOG.
All his rivals are at decent prices as a result of his odds and this means there could be some value elsewhere, particularly in the 7/1 BOG on offer for the Group 1 Dewhurst winner, Belardo, who holds several of his other rivals on past runs. He’s a former course and distance winner who performs well in these smaller fields and could spring a surprise here.
After a pretty average spell hurdling in Ireland, Bearly Legal has been a different animal over fences back here in the UK, finishing 1411. The most recent of these runs/wins was at Carlisle on Tuesday where he looked pretty comfortable winning by three lengths and seeming to have plenty in reserve and is well fancied to go well again at 15/8 BOG.
The main threat is set to come from Degooch, a former course and distance winner who has won 5 of his 13 races to date, including a win at Sedgefield last time out. That was seven weeks ago, when he was pretty untroubled having been clear before the last fence and could well have won by whatever distance he and his rider wanted. 3/1 BOG might look attractive by 5pm!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Ivawood / Bearly Legal @ 6.55/1 (13/8 & 15/8 : SkyBet & Paddy Power)
Ivawood / Degooch @ 9.50/1 (13/8 & 3/1 : Bet365, Hills, Paddy & SkyBet)
Belardo / Bearly Legal @ 19.13/1 (6/1 & 15/8 : Paddy & SkyBet)
Belardo / Degooch @ 27/1 (6/1 & 3/1 : Bet365, Paddy & SkyBet)