Stat of the Day, 18th April 2015
We completed a hat-trick of winners on Friday, as Opening Batsmen became our fourth winner of the week so far (Tuesday’s runner was only 3rd!). He made virtually all after going off pretty quickly, but the pack slowly came back to him and he was narrowly headed going over the last.
It looked like we were going to be denied, but OB is a class act even if he’s not the force of 2013 when rated 148 and he dug deep to rally and get back up to win by half a length. I should also remark upon the excellent handling by jockey Ryan Mahon to keep his mount going.
The icing on the cake came via a drift in the market, as our boy returned at 100/30. Saturday is the last pick of the week and I’d love to bow out with a winner in the…
Where the talented Ali Rawlinson will be seeking to make the most of his 5lb claim aboard Mick Appleby’s 3yr old filly, Lahayeb who is currently priced at 11/4 BOG for this Class 6 handicap over 1m2f
Jockey Ali has a good record using his claim aboard Mick’s horses so far, winning 17 of 52 races (32.7% SR) for 24.9pts (+47.9% ROI) when sent off at odds of 2/1 to 5/1.
Mick Appleby has a good record in recent years here at Nottingham with 21 winners from 98 (21.4% SR) runners here since the start of 2011 and a £10 bet on each of them would have returned £1280 profit at an ROI of 130.6%.
In handicaps, those figures are 21/86 (24.4% SR) for 140pts (+162.8% ROI) with those priced at 2/1 to 7/1 winning 14 of 33 (42.4% SR) for 47.1pts (+142.8% ROI).
Lahayeb‘s last run was also here at Nottingham ten days over 8.5f where she assumed control from 2f out and won fairly comfortably by 2 lengths staying in a manner to suggest she’ll enjoy the step up in trip today. She does, of course have to bear an 8lb hike in weight for that win, but with Ali Rawlinson taking over in the saddle, the rise is efectively only 3lbs.
That win was also at a Class 5 level and she drops down a grade to compete here and not only should this help her, the stats also suggest that this is a positive move, based on Mick Appleby’s past record with horses dropping in class.
Since the start of 2011, Mick’s handicappers dropping in class are 50/331 (15.1% SR) for 76.1pts (+23% ROI) profit, which is pretty decent as it stands, but if we isolate those running on turf, the figures are excellent with 22 winners from 129 (17.1% SR) for 109.3pts (+84.7% ROI) profit with those priced in the evens to 10/1 bracket winning 17 of 80 (21.25% SR) for 42.7pts profit at an ROI of 53.4%.
So, Saturday’s call is a 1pt win bet on Lahayeb at 11/4 BOG with Hills, who are currently the best price on the board.
But please make sure that’s still the case by…
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