Stat of the Day, 21st April 2015
Well, Monday was kind to us as we kicked out the new week in the same manner that the rest of the month has performed, with yet another winner. Resolute Reformer was certainly resolute in getting home by a length after looking beaten on the home turn.
He stayed on, however, and with the cajoling of Derek Fox stuck it out for a battling victory at 9/4 to defy top weight. We’d taken 7/2 earlier, of course, meaning that we made 155.6% of SP, but the SP debate is someone else’s gig! 😀
Familiar names associated with Tuesday’s pick, which goes in the…
Where we’re back with Team Skelton again! Dan & Harry are a formidable duo and in Guiding George, they could well have another winner at 4/1 BOG here. My initial port of call has to be Dan’s training record in NH handicaps and Harry’s record on those horses, before moving on to a stat relating to the horse itself.
Dan Skelton is 60/287 (20.9% SR for 33.6pts in NH handicap races throughout his relatively short training career and Harry’s contribution is to ride 44 of the winners from 216 of the runners (20.4% SR) for profits of 40.1pts (+18.6% ROI).
More pertinent to today’s contest, Dan’s handicap chasers priced 6/4 to 11/1 are 27/126 (21.4$ SR) for 25.5pts with Harry’s record proving slightly more profitable with 20 winners from 94 (21.3% SR) generating level stakes profits of 24.4 pts (+25.9% ROI).
And Guiding George?
In all honesty, he was a pretty average performer for John Paul Gilligan in Ireland, before a move to the Skelton yard last summer. He has looked a different horse since the switch and after finishing 4th of 10 (beaten by 9 lengths) on his yard debut, has finished 1212 in four runs since. The latest of those runs was 39 days ago at Fakenham when beaten by the re-opposing Benevolent by half a length at 8/11.
He was 2lbs worse off with Benevolent than he will be today and had he not clattered the last fence, he’d have won despite the weight.
Mind you, he won’t be the first horse to win next time out after being turned over at odds on. In fact since the start of 2010, NH chasers beaten by less than 5 lengths last time at odds on are 65/202 (32.2% SR) for 57.4pts (+28.4% ROI) provided they’ve had at least 10 days rest since the defeat. Those priced up at 6/5 to 6/1 to avenge the defeat are 42/107 (39.25% SR) for 48.5pts (+45.3% ROI).
Conditions look favourable for Guiding George too today, he has a win and a place from 4 runs on good ground, he has a win and a third place from two starts at today’s trip, having at least made the frame in all four runs at 3m and beyond. He has one win and that recent close defeat from the two occasions that Harry has ridden him and he is 2 from 2 when rested for 30 to 60 runs from his last run.
But please make sure that’s still the case by…
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