Double Dutch, 21st April 2015
Monday was a good start to the week, as Beggars Velvet drifted out to 2/1 before winning at Hexham and then La Bague Au Roi led Princess Roania home to complete a 6.88/1 double and also to land an exacta that paid slightly more than 11/2.
We don’t keep official results of the exactas, but I know many of you do play them.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Beggars Velvet: WON at 2/1 (adv 13/8)
Ganbei: 3rd at 7/4 (adv 3/1)
La Bague Au Roi: WON at 5/6 (adv 13/8)
Princess Roania: 2nd at 9/2 (adv 7/2)
The Exacta returned £6.60 to a £1 stake here.
Results to date:
552 winning selections from 1926 = 28.62%
172 winning bets in 499 days = 34.34%
P/L : +104.79pts (+10.51% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I’ll be looking for of the same from these for a Tuesday….
OK, it’s a 6 horse race where I expect just three horses to have a chance and where the 15/8 BOG favourite Sublime Talent seems to be at the top of the market for good reason. His results had been improving run by run of late and he was a pretty comfortable winner in the end at Chepstow last time out. He’s up 5lbs for that win, but the better ground here won’t test his stamina as much as the soft ground did that day.
He has won 6 races in and around this minimum trip and has a course and distance win to his name, albeit over hurdles, but he does at least get the track. His current mark of 114 is still workable based on past form and even when in the middle of a terrible run of form last year, Sublime Talent was a runner-up in back to back races off 114, beaten by less than a length by better horses than he’ll face today.
I’m then left with a choice between Tour D’Argent and Town Mouse, who both trade at around the 10/3 to 7/2 BOG mark, with Town Mouse just edging it for me. He arrives here on the back of a battling win at Fontwell 11 days ago over 2m2f, where he just hung on by a short head ahead of Very Noble, who went on to win over the same course and distance a week later (last Friday).
Trevor Whelan takes the ride today and those of you who like trainer/jockey combos the Whelan/King one is profitable across all three disciplines of NH racing, having made money in each of the last five seasons. Town Mouse only just hung on last time out, so I’d expect him to be a little more secure dropping back to 2m here, especially as his best form appears to come over 16.5f.
Young Jackie is the only course and distance winner on show here and on a quirky track like this, that looks to be a bonus. She was rated 51 when winning here and now runs off 50 with the added bonus of the talented Cam Hardie taking a further 3lbs off her back. This is obviously going to help and the stats tell me that trainer George Margarson is one of the more adept trainers at booking these 3lb claimers in tight contests, to eke out any possible advantage.
So, Young Jackie gets the track and the trip (both here and elsewhere), she’ll relish the return to good to firm ground after a spell on Polytrack and now looks the most likely here at 11/4 BOG with the biggest challenge expected to come from Attain, who is the only other runner in the field with a win in their immediately visible form.
Attain hasn’t actually won here (or on turf for that matter) but the going expected to be quick, that should suit him better than the ground he’s encountered in the past. He does have some decent if unsuccessful runs here at Brighton in the past, which does at least suggest he’ll not be too troubled by the undulations this evening.
Shelley Birkett rode him to victory on the A/W at Lingfield off today’s mark of 60 and they were only beaten by two lengths into third last time out off 4lbs higher. 60 looks very workable and if bringing that form across from the sand, then Attain could well be the one at 3/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Sublime Talent / Young Jackie @ 9.31/1 (7/4 & 11/4 : BetVictor & Paddy)
Sublime Talent / Attain @ 10/1 (7/4 & 3/1 : BetVictor & Betfred)
Town Mouse / Young Jackie @ 15.25/1 (10/3 & 11/4 : BetVictor)
Town Mouse / Attain @ 16.33/1 (10/3 & 3/1 : BetVictor)