Stat of the Day, 22nd April 2015
A rare off day for the Skeltons as both their runners finished 5th at Ludlow on Tuesday, including our pick Guiding George. He wasn’t too far off the pace before hitting the 12th fence and losing some momentum at a time when the race was picking up, leaving him outpaced and playing catchup. This caused more errors and cost him any remote chance he had of winning.
We can’t win every day, despite out best efforts, but the beauty of a one-a-day service is that I get to do it all again today. Huzzah! 😀
My quest now takes us to Vegas/South Wales on Wednesday evening for the…
And a 3/1 BOG bet on Rebecca Curtis’ Guard of Honour for this Class 4 handicap hurdle.
First up, we should look at the recent form of Rebecca’s runners, who in the last week alone have finished 1P1113, of which her hurdlers are 1P11.
She also has a great record here at Ffos Las and is very profitable to follow blindly, courtesy of her 60 winners from just 240 runners (25% SR), highly impressive figures returning level staskes profits of 31.7pts at an ROI of 13.2% with little/no thinking to do.
But, as you know by now, I like to drill down further to see if there’s an angle worth following and we can break that 60/240 stat down as follows…
Handicaps : 19/81 (23.5% SR) for 33pts (+40.8% ROI)
Hcp Hurdles : 9/48 (18.75% SR) for 11.25pts (+23.4% ROI)
Hcp hurdlers priced 7/4 to 10/1 : 9/35 (25.7% SR) for 24.3pts (+69.3% ROI)
Hcp hurdlers priced 7/4 to 10/1 over the last 28 months : 7/20 (35% SR) for 25.9pts (+129.5% ROI)
Guard of Honour was a winner at Stratford last time out, which just happened to be last Sunday! He now runs three days later under a penalty, of course, but will be aided by the presence of 10lb claimer Conor Brassil as he was on Sunday and in case you’re thinking that a 3-day turnaround is too soon, you probably won’t be too surprised that I’m going to try and counteract that theory with numbers!
In fact, since the start of 2008, NH runners turned out 2 to 3 days after a win last time out are 112/309 (36.25% SR) for 56 pts (+18.2% ROI) and like the Curtis/Ffos Las stat above, that’s another nice little steady micro to use blindly.
But we don’t settle for 18.2% ROI on SotD, unless we have to, so let’s look closer. Handicap runners are 105/284 (37% SR) for 60.8pts (+21.5% ROI) which is better, but can we improve that?
If we only looked at handicap hurdlers (which are more relevant in terms of today’s contest) we then arrive at a record of 72 winners from 186 runners, a 38.7% strike rate yielding 42.5pts profit at an ROI of 23%, with those sent off at odds of Evens to 6/1 winning 53 of 137 (38.7% SR) for 52.6pts (+38.7% ROI).
I’ve taken 3/1 BOG about Guard of Honour with Bet365, but the same price can be found in a half dozen places, so take your pick of the bookies by…
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