Double Dutch, 22nd April 2015
Yesterday was the 500th Double Dutch and it would have been nice to mark the milestone with a win. Unfortunately that wasn’t the case and despite three of our four runners making the frmae, we didn’t even land a single winner!
In race 1 Sublime Talent beat Town Mouse (1.25L) as I thought he might, but didn’t expect them both to be 9 lengths behind Limpopo Tom, whilst down at Brighton, the winner and aptly named Roy Rocket was the winner on a lightning fast surface with our runners 3rd (3L down) and 6th (6L).
Nevertheless, our first 500 attempts at the DD have generated 102.79pts profit at an ROI of almost 10.3%. We’ve found the winner of 28.6% of our races and average roughly 1-in-3 for the doubles. I’d settle for the same for the next 500, which will take us to late November 2016!
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Sublime Talent: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 7/4)
Town Mouse: 3rd at 3/1 (adv 10/3)
Attain: 3rd at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Young Jackie: 6th at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
552 winning selections from 1930 = 28.62%
172 winning bets in 500 days = 34.34%
P/L : +102.79pts (+10.28% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
A couple of early evening chases for Wednesday….
Where I like the look of 15/8 BOG Aye Well. I’ve backed this one a couple of times lately and today he bids for a fourth win in his last five starts (he was runner-up in his defeat). He runs under a penalty for a win at Ayr last Friday, but this looks marginally easier than than that race. Trainer Stuart Coltherd is in fine form with four winners from his eight runners over the past fortnight and his chasers are in fine fettle, with his last 10 runners producing 6 wins (the last 4 have all been winners).
There are doubts about all of his rivals, but if handling this better ground, Cango could be the danger. His form of late is 1214 with wins off marks of 103 & 113, but seemed to struggle off 122 last time out. He’s down 2lbs today and if suited by the quicker ground for the first time, should find this less of a test of his stamina. That second win in that 1214 sequence was at Ayr when he beat Aye Well by 20 lengths.
He ran off 113 that day and Aye Well was off 105, today they run off 120 & 124 respectively, suggesting that at the weights at least, Cango might well be worth a shot at 3/1 BOG under the in-form Brian Hughes.
The Conker Club is 0/4 over fences and has fallen twice. She’s also winless in her last 15 starts, so why is she (a) the 2/1 BOG favourite and (b) my pick here this evening? Welll, the fact of the matter is that not only should she have won last time out, but she does look to be the best of a really poor looking bunch on display here.
She had the race at her mercy at Wexford 12 days ago before a mistake when tiring at the last. She lost some momentum and was clearly fading as she got outbattled in the run to the line, going down by 0.75 lengths despite trading at 1.03 on the exchanges. She did at least show no ill effects from falls in her previous two outings and is sure to benefit by a drop back in trip by a couple of furlongs today.
Her most likely challenger looks to be chase debutant Shamar, who was pretty useful over hurdles and shouldn’t lack for ground speed, having run six times on the Flat. It is hoped that he’ll come on for a change of scenery, as he makes a debut for his new handlers here off the back of a 144-day absence. You have to expect that he’ll have been extensively schooled for a first crack at fences and he’s a tentative backup bet at 9/4 BOG, based on the fact that I really don’t like any of the others!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Aye Well / The Conker Club @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : Bet365)
Aye Well / Shamar @ 8.34/1 (15/8 & 9/4 : Bet365)
Cango/ The Conker Club @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : Bet365)
Cango/ Shamar @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : Bet365)