Stat of the Day, 23rd April 2015
To the untrained observer (ie me!) it looked for all the world that 10lb claimer Conor Brassil had been told to keep close to the well backed favourite at Ffos Las on Wednesday night and when you’re just starting out, you do as you’re told!
As it happens, I believe that Dougie Costello wasn’t at his own best on the favourite and went off at too brisk a pace and this theory is backed up by the fact that the three pacemakers (including our runner) finished 4th, 5th and 6th having weakened out of contention considerably from 2 out.
Our lad seemed to be following a leader making a poor judgement call, but that’s life. We finished 6th at 4/1 and there’s always tomorrow (or today, depending on when you read my ramblings! 😀 )
Thursday’s runner goes in the…
Where I’ve just taken 7/2 BOG about One For Hocky in this Class 4 handicap hurdle, where Nicky Richards has once again called upon Brian Harding to ride for him.
Nicky’s horses are doing OK at the moment, if not smashing any pots, but 2 winners from 5 in the last week and 5 from 18 in the past month keeps the fire burning, I suppose.
His horses, albeit a small-ish sample size, tend to fare well here at Perth and in handicap contests his figures are 13/94 (13.8% SR) for profits of 4.6pts at an ROI of 4.9%. Bearing in mind, his runners are generally well backed and this is blind backing 4.9% isn’t as bad a starting point as it might first look.
His handicap hurdlers, for example, are 9/58 (15.5% SR) for 4.6pts (+7.9% ROI), but if you just backed those priced at 6/1 or shorter, the market is a good guide with 8 winners from 27 (29.6% SR) for 21.8pts (+80.7% ROI) profit.
Over the last 4yrs, that figure is 5/15 (33.33% SR) for 12.1pts at an ROI of 80.7%, so you can see the ROI from these runners is steady over the years.
It’s becoming less of a secret about the potency of the Nicky Richards / Brian Harding partnership and there are many angles you could explore here, but quite simply, since 2008 their joint record is 93 winners from 517 (17.95% SR) for 57.2pts (+11.1% ROI), broken down as follows :
Handicaps since 2009 : 50/268 (18.7% SR) for 62.4pts (+23.3% ROI)
Hcp Hurdles : 30/153 (19.6% SR) for 51.5pts (+33.7% ROI)
Hcp Hurdles at 12/1 or shorter : 29/126 (23% SR) for 49.4pts (+39.2% ROI)
Hcp Hurdles at 5/1 or shorter : 22/92 (35.5% SR) for 36.4pts (+58.7% ROI) showing that once again, the market is usually right with these runners.
Conditions also look good for One For Hocky here and in relation to today’s race, I found the following interesting…
He has finished 521 in three gradually improving performances here at Perth and has won two and placed in two of his last five runs on Good ground. He has 3 wins and a place from 5 efforts beyond 2m4f and he’s 3 from 11 under Brian Harding, but that includes 2 wins and 3 places in their last six runs together.
In races of eight or fewer runners, One For Hocky has finished 313211, he’s won 3 times from 5 going right handed and was also placed in one of the defeats and he’s a former course and distance winner and comes here on the back of 3 wins and 3 places from his last 7 runs and is clearly in good heart for a good yard, prompting me to get on him here.
I’ve taken 7/2 BOG about One For Hocky with Bet365, but you can get the same deal from both BetVictor & Coral (as of 8.30pm on Wednesday anyway!), but you can always check if that’s still the case by…
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