Double Dutch, 23rd April 2015
I was happy to get away with just a 0.25pt loss on a bit of a farcical day yesterday. Two runners, including my fancy Aye Well, were withdrawn from our opening race, leaving it as a 3-runner affair with large Rule 4 deductions. As it was, our sole entrant Cango, who had been advised at 3/1, finished 2nd at a prohibitive 10/11.
The non-runner, though, at least afforded us the protection/insurance of a couple of singles at Fairyhouse and with first pick The Conker Club winning after a drift out to 5/2, we managed a spot of damage limitation. Our final runner Shamar was 3rd at 9/2, but almost 40 lengths back!
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Cango: 2nd at 10/11 (adv 3/1)
Aye Well: non-runner (adv 15/8)
The Conker Club: WON at 5/2 (adv 2/1)
Shamar: 6th at 9/2 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
553 winning selections from 1933 = 28.61%
173 winning bets in 501 days = 34.53%
P/L : +102.54pts (+10.24% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Evening action again on Thursday….
For a 9yr old, Ballytober doesn’t appear to have too many miles on his clock and comes here in decent nick, having finished 223 in his last three outings (all hunter chases and all off today’s mark), so we know he can jump and that the trip is fine. He was third last time out (Ludlow 3 weeks ago) and the two horses that beat him that day have both won again since. The faster ground today is no issue either as he won his only ever run on Good to Firm (Worcester, last May) and should be in the shake up today at 5/2 BOG (Betfair Sports).
As should the 11/4 BOG Vincitore who finished a length and a half behind Ballytober last time out (5 weeks ago at Newbury, when they were 2nd & 3rd behind the very useful Twirling Magnet at Newbury). Vincitore has been decent over both hurdles and fences to date (5 wins & 6 places from 24 so far) and now meeting Ballytober 2lbs better off and with the benefit of having had that run (off a break of 303 days!) should be close again.
Austin Friars represents Charlie Appleby here and whilst the yard isn’t in as blistering form as they were a couple of weeks back, they’re still averaging around the 20% strike rate ie more than useful and in Austin Friars, they’ve an in-form who showed plenty of promise in three fast ground maidens, before returning to finish 212 on the A/W earlier this year.
The return to fast turf should benefit him and although he’s up 4lbs for a narrow defeat last time out, the talented Tom Marquand’s presence with his 7lb claim means that we’re effectively running at the same mark as when winning two starts ago at Lingfield over this same trip and at 5/2 BOG with Coral, I’d probably be all over him, but for the opposition containing Master Zephyr, who can be backed at 9/4 BOG.
Master Zephyr was a winner over 9f at Wolverhampton on his last run / handicap debut and with his breeding suggesting he needs further than that and allied to his trainer’s very good record here, he has to be of interest. The runner-up from that Wolverhampton outing has since gone on to win too. He has been well rested, but you can be sure he’ll have been working on some firm ground and if ready to fire after 195 days would be my marginal preference.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Ballytober / Master Zephyr @ 10.38/1 (5/2 & 9/4 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Ballytober / Austin Friars @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Coral)
Vincitore / Master Zephyr @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4, BetVictor, Coral & Hills)
Vincitore / Austin Friars @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Coral)