Double Dutch, 24th April 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 24th April 2015

When Vincitore drifted out to 5/1 and then just about got up on the line, we were well on the way to a very nice 18.5/1 double and it looked for all the world that Master Zephyr’s smooth passage from back to front was perfectly timed, but the leader just found a little bit more to hold on narrowly.

Wednesday’s results were as follows:

Vincitore: WON at 5/1 (adv 11/4)
Ballytober: UR at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Master Zephyr: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
Austin Friars: 4th at 11/4 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
554 winning selections from 1937 = 28.60%
173 winning bets in 502 days = 34.46%

Stakes: 1003.50pts
Returns: 1104.04pts

P/L : +100.54pts (+10.02% ROI)

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As we now hover precariously above the 100pts & 10% ROI markers, we could do with some winners from these on Friday….

3.35 Sandown:

Thahab is interesting here, as this Dubawi colt makes his handicap debut off the back of an absolute stroll at Chelmsford 17 days ago. It could quite fairly be suggested that he didn’t have much to beat, but beat them he did, by a good six lengths with plenty to spare. He’s not got the best of draws here out in 8 of 8, but may well have that opening burst of speed to get across.

A certain Mr Dettori is back in the saddle today and he’s bang in form, with 6 wins from 13 over the last week and he certainly knows a trick or two around these parts. An opening handicap mark of 86 should still leave some room for movement and if starting well, Thahab should be there or thereabouts at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor.

If, however, I had to pick a more likely winner then it would have to be course and distance winner Waady, who showed no signs of rustiness on his seasonal debut, winning at Nottingham on soft ground 16 days ago, despite an absence of almost 7 months. He was drawn 7 of 7 that day, but has managed to bag the sought after number 1 stall here, said to hold an advantage over 5f at Sandown.

The Gosden yard is in full flow at the moment (5/15 in the last week alone) and also have a really good record over the years here at Sandown and whilst Waady might need a bit of luck in running to get a break, I still think he’s the one to beat here at 2/1 BOG.


6.55 Plumpton:

All four of Little Roxy‘s career wins have come here at Plumpton, but over 75% of her 31 outings have been on this track! Nevertheless, 4 wins and 6 other places from 24 hurdles contests here isn’t a bad return at this Class 5 level, where runners are generally inconsistent at best. Last seen winning here 19 days ago in a manner that suggests she’s now ready to step up to this trip for the first time.

She only took the lead in the final 150 yards, but went on to win by a couple of lengths going away from the pack and looking like she had plenty in hand. A word of caution, however, in so much that she’s never won off a mark as high as today, but in a weak looking contest, Little Roxy has every chance at 10/3 BOG (Bet365) with very few of her rivals boasting any sort of recent form…

…except, of course, Flugzeug who is the more likely to prevail here. He’s another Plumpton regular, having run 11 of his 22 races here to date (8 over fences, 3 over hurdles) He’s a course and distance winner here over hurdles (18 days ago) and stamina won’t be his undoing here today, as he has stayed further on worse ground on this very track!

Flugzeug might have to show a bit more today to overcome a 7lb rise in weight, but as I said earlier, this doesn’t look too difficult a contest against a group of rivals with as many letters in their recent form lines as there are numbers! If he gets round unscathed, then he’s the one to beat at 7/4 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Waady / Flugzeug @ 7.25/1 (2/1 & 7/4 : generally)
Waady / Little Roxy @ 12/1 (2/1 & 10/3 : Bet365)
Thahab / Flugzeug @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4 : generally)
Thahab / Little Roxy @ 15.25/1 (11/4 & 10/3 : Bet365)

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