Stat of the Day, 27th April 2015
Our 7/2 shot Ajman Bridge was beaten by just a neck as a fancied 2/1 favourite at Doncaster on Saturday and the frustration/disappointment of that result just about summed up my week!
I’ve absolutely no complaints about his run or the way he was handled, he was just (and only just!) beaten by one who had a bit more on the day. He ran really well from a handy position and certainly didn’t look like he hadn’t raced for eight months and if I can get a price on him next time out, might be worth a punt.
Anyway, a new week = a clean sheet and four more opportunities to top up April’s account before May Day (which is of course Friday and the artificial bank Holiday Monday!), starting in the…
A Class 6, A/W handicap over 1m3f where I’ve just placed a bet at 11/4 BOG on Ian Williams’ 3yr old Convicted, who was a course and distance winner here just under 3 weeks ago.
Ian Williams record here at Kempton in A/W handicaps since 2008 is good : 33 winners from 165 runners at a strike rate of exactly 20% and the 41,25pts profit equate to exactly 25% of all stakes.
In regard to today’s contest, that above record can be broken down as follows…
At trips of 6f to 11f : 22/104 (21.2% SR) for 50.1pts (+48.1% ROI)
Priced at 7/1 or shorter : 30/97 (30.9% SR) for 51.9pts (+53.5% ROI)
At Class 6 : 21/74 (28.4%SR) for 55.7pts (+75.2% ROI)
Obviously the more you refine the stat, the smaller the sample size, but as an example, Ian Williams’ runners in Kempton Class 6 A/W handicaps over trips of 6f to 11f at odds of 5/1 or shorter are 12/25 (48% SR) for 28.4pts profit at an ROI of 113.6%.
Convicted hadn’t even made the frame in any of his six starts (650754) before getting off the mark over course and distance here 19 days ago. He is now turned back out quite quickly in a bid to take advantage of this upturn in form, but there is a precedent in place for this.
Horses running in A/W handicaps here at Kempton who won last time out in the previous 30 days, that had gone on a run (at least 3 in a row) of unplaced efforts prior to that win (ie u/p, u/p, u/p, win) are 114 from 439 (26% SR) for 177.8pts (+40.5% ROI) profit at odds below 12/1.
Those who ran and won here at Kempton last time out are 63/224 (28.1% SR) for 136.2pts (+60.8% ROI) whilst those now running over the same course and distance as last time are 47/154 (30.5% SR) for 113.4pts (+73.6% ROI).
The best price for Convicted is 11/4 BOG with Bet365. You can see if that’s still the case by…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS