Double Dutch, 27th April 2015
Saturday was one of those kinda won/kinda lost days, let me explain!
Pinzolo was disappointingly well beaten at Ripon, but Clever Cookie was a non-runner. So whilst we’d no winner from race 1, the bet wasn’t down, because the non-runner gave us 0.5pt two singles at Limerick, which would mean either a modest loss of 0.25pts or an equally modest gain of 0.25pts on the day, should either of them win, of course.
Well, the favourite duly won, but a 15p Rule 4 deduction due to another non-runner meant a loss of 0.44pts overall. It could, of course, been much worse!
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Pinzolo: 5th at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Clever Cookie: non-runner (adv 4/1)
Answered: WON at 9/10 (adv 17/8 after 15p R4)
Roheryn: 5th at 11/4 (adv 3/1 after 15p R4)
Results to date:
557 winning selections from 1944 = 28.65%
175 winning bets in 504 days = 34.72%
P/L : +102.57pts (+10.18% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Monday is a fresh start and we’ll aim to push on with these evening contests…
Arc Lighter is 0/6 to date, yet is installed as the 2/1 BOG favourite. Surely not? Closer inspection, however, shows that he’s been progressively better in each run, getting closer and closer each time. He’s been knocking on the door with two runner-up finishes (2.5L & Hd) in the last month over longer trips than today and it is expected that the drop back to 1m2f will help him get home.
He’s also wearing a hood to help him today too, after that narrow defeat here at Windsor a week ago, when he hung to the left late on and got bumped on the line, the headgear should keep him a little straighter if nothing else.
The one that I think would mount a serious challenge at a (currently!) decent price is Unison, who looks very long at 13/2 BOG, coming off a win at Newmarket last time out. I suppose the main doubt about him is the fact that he has been off the track for 6 months since that win at HQ, where he gamely made all to win at 20/1 off a mark of 75.
If running well fresh, a rise of just 1lb shouldn’t be too onerous for a horse who seems to have conditions in his favour here today. He’s already won here at Windsor in the past and has won three of his last five runs at this grade. He’s 2/4 over this trip and 3/7 with today’s jockey (2 wins in their last 4 runs together). His best runs come in these smaller fields races, but does have to prove he can go well first time out. If he can, 13/2 BOG might prove a decent E/W bet if nothing else (and if there are no non-runners from the 8!)
Marco Botti has had a very successful month so far and also tends to do well here at Wolverhampton and in Crazy Chic, has an unexposed sort trying 7f for the first time. He has shown promise in a couple of decent efforts over 6f (ignore the defeat on heavy ground LTO, totally unsuitable, but got him a hcp mark!) and his breeding suggests the extra furlong would suit him better.
He was a winner on debut, looking comfortable 2 lengths clear at Doncaster on good ground before a 1.5 lengths defeat in third place at Kempton, where he finished 0.75 lengths ahead of Desert Strike, who has since won four times. Other than that run on heavy ground, that’s the sum total of Crazy Chic‘s career and I wouldn’t be surprised if he marked his handicap bow with a win at 11/4 BOG.
The main threat is likely to be Gigawatt at 7/2 BOG. The truth is that he doesn’t win enough races, but always tends to be there or thereabouts. He certainly gets this tapeta surface, though, having one win and one runner-up finish from two starts here over track and trip. He was only beaten by a head on his first crack at C&D, before a 2 length victory here in February. He was ahead of My Son Max that day with the latter also going on to score over this course and distance next time out.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Arc Lighter / Crazy Chic @ 10.25/1 (2/1 & 11/4 : BetVictor, Paddy & Betfred)
Arc Lighter / Gigawatt @ 12.50/1 (2/1 & 7/2 : BetVictor & SkyBet)
Unison / Crazy Chic @ 27.13/1 (13/2 & 11/4 : Hills)
Unison / Gigawatt @ 30.50/1 (6/1 & 7/2 : SkyBet, Lads & Totesport)