Stat of the Day, 28th April 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th April 2015

They say that when you’re hot, you’re hot and when you’re not, you’re not. At the moment, I’m pretty chilly and although April has been excellent overall, it’s in danger of fizzling out with a whimper after another loss yesterday.

Not that Convicted ran badly, he just didn’t run well enough. He led until there was just 2 of the 11 furlongs left to run, but once headed the game was up and he eventually surrendered another couple of places late on to finish 4th at 10/3, a shade longer than advised.

I don’t mind admitting that finding a suitable selection for Tuesday was tough, but I think I might just have something in the…

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3.05 Wolverhampton:

Where Saeed bin Suroor steps Always Smile up by 2.5 furlongs for her second outing and handicap debut.

SBS has his horses running well at present with 5 winners from 22 in the last fortnight and his record here at Wolvehampton is decent. Since the start of 2009, he has saddled up 48 winners here from just 132 runners, an impressive 36.4% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 21.4pts at an ROI of 16.2%.

Those figures aren’t skewed by some old data, as in recent years, he’s done even better with 31 winners from 81 (38.3% SR) since the start of 2012 for profits of 19.1pts (+23.6% ROI). He fares better in handicap contests with a record reading 16/44 (36.4% SR) for 18pts (+40.9% ROI) in those last three years with those priced shorter than 6/1 winning 15 of 33 (45.5% SR) for 21.1pts (+64% ROI).

Always Smile makes her handicap debut today and becomes the yard’s 242nd handicap debutant since 2008. 58 of the 241 (24.1% SR) won 1st time up for profits of 41.6pts (+17.3% ROI) with runners here at Wolverhampton winning 4 of 13 (30.8% SR) for 7.6pts (+58.1% ROI).

Those handicap debutants who, like Always Smile, were stepping up in trip by up to 2.5f for that 1st effort have won 28 of 94 (29.8% SR) for 44.1pts (+46.9% ROI) profit.

Always Smile was a winner on debut, coasting home by 3.5 lengths over 6f and being by Cape Cross and a half-sister to Oaks runner (5th and only beaten by 4.5 lengths) Ihtimal, the step up in trip should suit her, as I expect she’ll end up being a 10f/12f horse in due course.

The best price for Always Smile is 16/5 BOG with BetBright. You can see if that’s still the case by…

…clicking here for the betting on the 3.05 Wolverhampton

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Here is today’s racecard.

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