Double Dutch, 28th April 2015
Monday was a tale of two well backed 5/4 favourites, two races settled by a neck and two runners finishing 5th after massive drifts in the betting!
Unison and Gigawatt drifted by 3.5pts and 3pts respectively and proved the money correct by getting beaten by areound 8 lengths and 4.5 lengths respectively, meaning that our hopes rested on two 5/4 shots that we’d backed at 2/1 & 11/4.
Both races highlighted the fine margins we’re working with/against with just a neck separating winners from losers and unfortunately for us, we only got on the right side of one decision.
Arc Lighter hung left and was outbattled late on, whilst Crazy Chic seixed the initiative inside the final furlong and held off a gallant 20/1 challenger. One out of two on the day , which is good but not great.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Arc Lighter: 2nd at 5/4 (adv 2/1)
Unison: 5th at 10/1 (adv 13/2)
Crazy Chic: WON at 5/4 (adv 11/4)
Gigawatt: 5th at 13/2 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
558 winning selections from 1948 = 28.64%
175 winning bets in 505 days = 34.65%
P/L : +100.57pts (+9.96% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Hoping for a little better on Tuesday…
Where it could well pay to side with the two runners who won last time out. Pull The Plug was 2 from 2 as a 2 yr old, invcluding a win here on the old surface over 6f. She was reportedly “out of sorts” last year ( I mustn’t suggest female hormones! 😀 ) and had a poor 2014, but the reports are that she’s been working well at home and came back to form to win on her seasonal return at Doncaster last Friday.
She was doing all her best work later on in the contest, coming from the rear 2f out to stay on well to take the lead late on and score by half a length, suggesting she might actually relish the extra furlong here today. She’s up 6lbs for that win, but jockey Luke Leadbitter takes 7lbs off to negate the penalty and if she does get the trip and it’s not too soon after that run, Pull The Plug is the one to beat at around 5/2 BOG.
But, due to those little doubts, we need a second runner in the shape of Bush Beauty, who has had a break and a change of trainer since putting together a string of consistent efforts over course and distance in January, finishing 221 in three fairly tight contests. She’s moved to William Jarvis’ yard since those efforts and Mr Jarvis has a good record in A/W handicap contests.
Bush Beauty is up 3lbs for those January exploits, which isn’t too harsh, with that last run producing several decent subsequent runs from her beaten rivals and the move to a fillies’ only race could well make Bush Beauty‘s task a little easier, making her current 9/2 BOG odds look fairly generous.
Rainbow Pride might not have shown much in three 7f maidens as a 2yr old, finishing 756, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if he wasn’t the latest in a long line of Sir Mark Prescott winners on handicap debut over trips more in line with their abilities/breeding.
The three modest runs have enabled him to compete here off a relatively lowly mark of just 62 and for a Prescott following as well worn path to handicapping, might have been underestimated and Rainbow Pride has a good chance of landing this at 9/4 BOG, now stepping by all of 3f, whilst dropping down in class.
The danger could well could from Casila, who has shown some signs of promise in two defeats this month. She was third, beaten by just over a length by Well Off at Redcar over a mile, where she was outpaced, but then stayed on well to put 4.5 lengths between her and 4th place, suggesting a longer trip would suit better.
She then stepped up to 1m4f at Wolverhampton, finishing 2nd and beaten by 2.5 lengths. She didn’t appear to get the full mile and a half, looking decidedly one-paced once headed with a furlong to go. So, by process of elimination, could 1m2f be her optimal distance. You could easily make a case for that and as this doesn’t look the strongest of races, Casila looks to have every chance at 11/4 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Pull The Plug / Rainbow Pride @ 11.35/1 (14/5 & 9/4 : BetBright)
Pull The Plug/ Casila @ 13.06/1 (11/4 & 11/4 : Stan James)
Bush Beauty/ Rainbow Pride @ 16.88/1 (9/2 & 9/4 : Coral)
Bush Beauty/ Casila @ 19.63/1 (9/2 & 11/4 : Bet365, Coral & Betfair Sportsbook)