Stat of the Day, 29th April 2015
Despite fluffing the start and being slow away, before running around a bit and wandering on the home straight, Always Smile showed a good turn of foot to win by almost two lengths at Wolverhampton at 11/4.
There has been some discussion about Betbright’s pricing policy and whilst I got 16/5 BOG from them, some of you couldn’t get it, some got more and some took 10/3 elsewhere. In light of this, whilst I’m happy enough to claim 16/5 for my records, I won’t be quoting Betbright alone in future.
Buoyed by that win at Wolverhampton, I’m staying put for another crack at the Tapeta, more specifcally the…
A 6f Class 4 contest and a 3/1 BOG bet on Marco Botti’s handicap debutante, the 3 yr old filly Luna Mission, who was a winner here over course and distance last time out.
Since the start of 2010, Marco’s 3yr old handicap debutants are 27/153 (17.7% SR) for 23pts profit at an ROI of 15%. (8/27 here at Wolverhampton!).
Of those 153 runners…
Those running at trips of 6 to 8 furlongs are 19/71 (26.8% SR) for 53pts (+74.6% ROI) and
Those priced at 7/4 to 6/1 are 18/66 (27.3% SR) for 23.3pts (+35.3% ROI).
Marco Botti handicap debutants competing over 6 to 8 furlongs at odds of 6/4 to 8/1 are 17/45 (37.8% SR) for 41.8pts (+92.9% ROI) with a record here at Wolverhampton of 6 winners from 12 (50% SR) for 10.53pts (+87.75% ROI).
Luna Mission has had three runs to date, finishing third in each of her first two starts, both 6f maidens and beaten by 5L on debut at Kempton, before a 1L defeat at Yarmouth. She then ran here on the tapeta for the first time and was quite comfortable in winning by a length and a half over today’s track and trip.
The form from that maiden has been franked by five of her rivals from that race going on to win since and provided there’s no ill-effects from a 202 day absence, Luna Mission could well go in again, especially when you consider that since 2011, Marco Botti’s handicappers with CD next to their name on the racecard, who were winners last time out, have gone on to double up on 12 of 33 occasions (36.04% SR) for 11.75pts (+35.6% ROI) profit.
Here at Wolverhampton, at odds shorter than 7/2, the record is 7/10 (70% SR) for 8.55pts (+85.5% ROI) profit. Impressive stuff.
The best price for Luna Mission is 3/1 BOG with Boylesports, Paddy Power and Betfair’s Sportsbook. You can, therefore, take your pick by…
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