Double Dutch, 29th April 2015
April continues to be a frustrating month, as my run of finding one, but not two winners per day continues to annoy me. Tuesday was yet another such day, as we were unable to capitalise upon a nice 3/1 win by Pull The Plug in race 1, who stayed on well once in the lead and stretched to a final winning margin of 1.5 lengths at Wolverhampton.
Race 2 was just 10 minutes later at Nottingham, but proved to be anti-climactic with neither of our runners even making the frame. Casila finished a place and 2.25 lengths ahead of Rainbow Pride, but was only 4th herself and well beaten by 5.5 lengths in a very strung out field.
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Pull The Plug: WON at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Bush Beauty: 7th at 11/2 (adv 9/2)
Casila: 4th at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Rainbow Pride: 5th at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
559 winning selections from 1952 = 28.64%
175 winning bets in 506 days = 34.58%
P/L : +98.57pts (+9.74% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Wednesday’s races are as follows…
Just four go to post here and two have run in the last two weeks and two are coming off 7 month breaks, but it;s the returners I’m siding with here.
Pleasant Valley won back to back contests over this trip at Doncaster last August and was only denied a hat-trick by finishing 5th in a much stronger Listed event. She wasn’t disgraced, though, beaten by less than 5 lengths and she was only 4 lengths behind ther runner-up and 1.5 lengths away from 4th, with both those horses going on to win next time out. The break is a minor worry, but a similar run to LTO should be enough for her to take this at 7/4 BOG.
Asyad (15/8 BOG) is lightly raced after just five starts, but has two wins and a runner-up finish from her last four outings, although her copybook was slightly blotted when finishing 8th at Newmarket last time out, but neither the going nor the trip were suitable that day, as she weakened late on. The drop back to 1m2f is set to suit on faster ground (she’s 21 at this trip) and she’s from a family of winners, her dam has had 10 foals todat, 9 of which have been winners!
Claimers aren’t the best of races, to be honest and this one looks pretty average too, but in Orlando Rogue we have a horse dropping in class, who looks pretty well in at the weights and represents a trainer with a good record in claimers. He’s the only past winner in the race and that win was at a higher grade than this and over today’s trip, suggesting that from what little form there is on offer today, he has the best of it and looks the most likely at 5/2 BOG.
You can find reasons not to back any of his rivals easily enough, but I suppose the one I dislike the least here is Doubly Clever, who has, in the past, been regarded as better than results have suggested. He showed promise when not getting beat by too far in a couple of Class 4/5 maidens over this trip, before being considered good enough to be entered into valuable Class 2 sales race at Newmarket.
He was fairly well beaten that day and didn’t run again last season. He then returned at Wolverhampton and despite running off the back of a 203 day break was well supported and sent off as 2nd favourite. He faded late on and probably needed the run. If bouncing back off a 2lb lower mark today at 11/4 BOG, he’s probably the one to challenge the first choice here.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Pleasant Valley / Orlando Rogue @ 7.94/1 (7/4 & 9/4 : BetVictor & Stan James)
Pleasant Valley / Doubly Clever @ 9.50/1 (13/8 & 3/1 : Hills)
Asyad / Orlando Rogue @ 8.34/1 (15/8 & 9/4 : Bet365)
Asyad / Doubly Clever @ 10/1 (7/4 & 3/1 : Hills)