Stat of the Day, 30th April 2015
No sort of run from Luna Mission at Wolverhampton on Wednesday, she was pretty lifeless and disappointing if truth be told. She was very slow out of the stalls and had to be reminded of what she was there for. She then had to be ridden just to get in touch with the pack, but never looked threatening from the rear.
She made a short-lived effort coming off the home turn, but that soon fizzled and she finished 5th at 7/2, beaten by just over 6 lengths.
Thursday is the last pick for April, so I’ll be hoping to go out on a high with one last winner in the…
Where Keith Dalgleish’s Bertie Moon will aim to go one better than his runner-up finish at Perth last Thursday, as this 5 yr old gelding tackles 2m1f on goof to form ground for this Class 5 handicap hurdle.
Yes, that’s right, a hurdle! I know that Keith Dalgleish is more widely known for his exploits on the Flat and A/W and in the last 5 yrs since starting training, his career stats are 245/1807 (13.6% SR). But a small percentage (6%) of those runners were National Hunt runners, where his record is 18/108 (16.7% SR) for a modest profit of 4.2pts (+3.9% ROI).
His NH runners have fared better in handicap company, though, winning 14 of 53 (26.4% SR) and generating level stakes profits of 32.3pts at an ROI og 60.9%. Those priced at 10/1 or shorter are 14/37 (37.8% SR) for 48.3pts (+130.4% ROI) profit.
Those are excellent figures, but you might be thinking it’s a fairly small sample size, so let’s take a look at another stats that starts with a sample size of almost 4400!
Since the start of 2008 season, handicap hurdlers aged 3 to 9 whose last run was no more than a week ago and they had the benefit of at least one other run in the last three months have a strike rate in excess of 15% when turned back out.
It’s not an easy microsystem to explain succinctly, but it really is far less complicated than I might have made it sound. Basically 3 to 9 yr old handicap hurdlers with at least 2 runs in the last three months and at least one in the past week. Such horses have won 671 of 4395 (15.3% SR) for profits of 1180.7pts (+27% ROI).
Those whose last outing was also a handicap hurdle race are 527/3048 (17.3% SR) for 1134.3pts (+37.5% ROI) and there are hundreds of different ways to break the data down, such is the size of the sample.
But, with today’s race in mind, it might be worth knowing that 5 to 7 yr old males running over trips of 2m to 2m 2f won 144 of 728 races and made 745.4pts at an ROI of 103.5%.
Bertie Moon was only beaten by 4 lengths last time out, but that was on good to soft ground and for a horse who was quick enough to win twice at Windsor on ther Flat and also on the A/W tracks at Lingfield and Southwell, you’d have to expect him to go better on this quicker firmer surface today.
The best price for Bertie Moon is 4/1 BOG with Paddy Power, but do check that’s still available by…
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