Double Dutch, 30th April 2015
SP winners at 11/8 and 5/4 combining to make a double at 4.34/1 barely cover our stakes and won’t help us progress much. Thankfully, taking the morning BOG offers of 7/4 & 9/4 meant we got paid out at 7.94/1 and whilst this won’t make us rich, it’s 183% of SP and a reminder of how important the BOG prices are.
For the record, Pleasant Valley strolled home by 9 lengths, having made all and was eased right down late on, before Orlando Rogue completed the double with a more workmanlike 1.25 length success. He took the lead inside the final furlong and from that point, there was only going to be one winner.
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Pleasant Valley: WON at 11/8 (adv 7/4)
Asyad: 3rd at 11/4 (adv 15/8)
Orlando Rogue: WON at 5/4 (adv 9/4)
Doubly Clever: 4th at 5/1 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
561 winning selections from 1956 = 28.68%
176 winning bets in 507 days = 34.71%
P/L : +101.04pts (+9.97% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Thursday is our last shot of the month, so here goes…
It’s probably best to side with the two LTO winners for this one, despite there being three former C&D winners amongst their rivals.
Classinaglass is lightly raced for an 8yr old, but has won 2 of his starts over fences and after knocking on the door with three third placed finishes, was a winner at Carlisle eight weeks under under the talented Harry Bannister, who’s back in the saddle and claiming 5lbs here today. Harry was on board for that win last time out and a 4lb rise looks more than fair.
The official margin of that last win was just half a length, but the truth is that he was always just doing enough and looked to have plenty left if needed. The slight step up in trip is no issue, he stays a mile further than this and the better ground should also help him here today, where he is currently priced at 7/2 BOG.
But the one he’ll need to beat is Donald McCain’s French import Abricot de L’oasis, whose overall 2/10 record doesn’t make him an obvious choice, but closer inspection shows he’s 2/2 over fences, having won over 2m2f on his last run in France almost a year ago and then again at Carlisle over 2m3f just over a fortnight ago.
He had five losing runs over hurdles in between those victories and although second on his last effort over hurdles, looks a far better prospect over the bigger obstacles. He did tend to jump to the left last time out, suggesting that the switch to a left handed track would help him here, where he can be backed at 11/4 BOG with Betfair.
Sugar Boy was far from disgraced in a 5 length defeat at Newbury a fortnight ago, when he finished 4th of 12 in a Class 2 contest on his handicap debut. This represents a substantial drop in class today and prior to that run at Newbury, he had won a maiden over this trip at Wolverhampton. He really looks a better prospect this year as opposed to his runs as a 2yr old and with the Gosden yard in such fine form (7/19 in the last week alone), they could have another winner here at 5/2 BOG.
However the presence of 9/2 BOG (looks attractively long to me) Mehronissa means the Boy won’t have it all his own way. She may well have only had the one start 251 days ago, but she won first time up and was quite impressive in doing so at Newmarket. She was slow in the early stages, but once the penny dropped, she fairly flew home to win by a length and a quarter.
The runner-up has since finished second (beaten by a length) on his only other run, whilst the horses in 3rd, 4th and 5th have all won with the 6th placed horse being a runner-up by a short head, so that Newmarket race looks to be a warm one and if the form holds out, then Mehronissa could be a winner at a nice price today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Abricot de L’oasis / Sugar Boy @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Abricot de L’oasis / Mehronissa @ 18.25/1 (5/2 & 9/2 : Coral & Hills)
Classinaglass / Sugar Boy @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : generally)
Classinaglass / Mehronissa @ 23.75/1 (7/2 & 9/2 : generally)