Double Dutch, 1st May 2015
Things were looking good at the halfway stage after we’d got the first and third home at Sedgefield with Abricot de L’oasis winning impressively by 4.5 lengths at 5/2, slightly shorter than our advised 11/4.
This gave us a nice stake for race 2, but unfortunately we saw no return from our money, as Sugar Boy was very disappointing in finishing third, a length and a half off the pace. He’d been backed (5/4 from 5/2) as though this would be easy for him, but he just didn’t look happy from a long way out.
Mehronissa, on the other hand, was travelling nicely and running to a plan to come from a held up position. Unfortunately she was badly hampered 2f out, ending all chances of winning both the race and our double.
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Abricot de L’oasis: WON at 5/2 (adv 11/4)
Classinaglass: 3rd at 5/2 (adv 7/2)
Sugar Boy: 3rd at 5/4 (adv 5/2)
Mehronissa: 9th at 8/1 (adv 9/2)
Results to date:
562 winning selections from 1960 = 28.67%
176 winning bets in 508 days = 34.65%
P/L : +99.04pts (+9.75% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
New month, clean slate, let’s go…
Bold Runner has already won twice over today’s trip including a half length success at Kempton last time out, when he stayed on well and looked to have something left in the tank. He is, of course, penalised to the tune of 6lbs for that run 10 days ago, but with jockey Ned Curtis claiming 5lbs, the rise is minimal.
He does, technically, run off a revised mark of 71 before jockey claims and he has already come close here off 71, when beaten by a head last summer. He does look the most likely winner here and can be backed at 5/2 BOG.
I’d expect the main threat to come from Tilstarr, despite her being 0/3 at the trip. She has won twice here at Lingfield in the past and the last time she raced over this trip, she was only beaten by a neck her over course and distance by Atalanta Bay, who has also won her only other race since.
Mark Monaghan took 5lbs off Tilstarr‘s 67 rating that day and he’s now taking 5 off 65, so a similar run could well be enough at 7/2 BOG today.
Threapwood is an interesting newcomer to Rules racing at the age of 8 after having competing 31 times in Point to Point races. Jumping and stamina won’t be an issue, based on the fact that he’s won 9 of those 31 PTP contests and comes here on the back of two wins and a runner-up finish in his last four outings. I suppose we have to take it on trust that he’ll adapt to racecourse life, but in what looks a fairly average event here, he’s the one I’d have at 7/4 BOG.
There are issues with both Don’t Hang About being off the track for almost two years, which really leaves me with Stratford Stroller as my alternate. The form guides might say he hasn’t raced for almost 5 years, which would be a worry, but he has, in fact, been contesting PTP races in that time, winning three times and finishing as a runner up once from 11 starts. Like Threapwood above, that PTP form is better than the chasing form on offer from his rivals and so Stratford Stroller becomes my second choice at 5/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Bold Runner / Threapwood @ 9.06/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : Bet365)
Bold Runner / Stratford Stroller @ 20/1 (5/2 & 5/1 : Bet365, SkyBet & Hills)
Tilstarr / Threapwood @ 11.94/1 (7/2 & 15/8 : Bet365)
Tilstarr / Stratford Stroller @ 26/1 (7/2 & 5/1 : Bet365)