Double Dutch, 2nd May 2015
Friday was a poor way to start the new month, if truth be told. Three of four horses in the frame, but no winners and no winners means no profits!
Bold Runner’s 3rd place finish was the best I could manage at Lingfield, after he was hampered on the final bend. It probably didn’t stop him from winning if I’m honest, but he would have been closer than he was.
We then had second and third in our “dead rubber” at Bangor with Stratford Stroller’s half length defeat proving to be my best pick of the day on a day where I struggled with everything I picked away from Double Dutch!
I should also hold my hands up and say I got it wrong with the winner, who clearly didn’t mind running off the back of a 2yr absence, as he stayed on well to win.
Not my best day this year, that’s for sure!
Friday’s results were as follows:
Bold Runner: 3rd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Tilstarr: 6th at 5/2 (adv 7/2)
Stratford Stroller: 2nd at 9/2 (adv 5/1)
Threapwood: 3rd at 9/2 (adv 15/8)
Results to date:
562 winning selections from 1964 = 28.62%
176 winning bets in 509 days = 34.58%
P/L : +97.04pts (+9.54% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Saturdays are usually hyper competitive, but we should go well with……
Provenance has an excellent pedigree and progressed well in her first season, winning 3 times from 5 efforts at 7f/1m, including C3 handicaps at Haydock and Sandown. She was beaten by less than 2 lengths in third place in a 1m listed race at Newmarket before not quite seeing out 1m2f in another Listed event (5th, beaten by 8L). Further progression is expected this year and the drop back to a mile should bring another win at 2/1 BOG.
She’s owned by Cheveley Park, as is her main rival Tigrilla who had a good debut season as a 2yr old, including a win at Listed company in Deauville, France before a couple of excellent runs in Group races at Newmarket (beaten by 3.5 L at Gr2) and also back at Deauville, where she was only beaten by a length in a Group 3 race on her first effort over a mile. She’s sure to come on again this season and with this representing an easier race than last time, she has every chance at 9/4 BOG.
Luca Cumani’s horses are going well at the moment with a 4/10 record in the past week and also has a good record on this track, including the winner of this race last year, Silk Sari, who won here after arriving with a 1/4 record like today’s representative Comedy King. CK showed signs of early promise in landing a 1m2f maiden, beating 10 rivals in the process. The runner-up from that day hasn’t raced since, but each of the next 7 horses have all won since, clocking up 11 wins and 10 places from 44 runs between them.
Comedy King has been gelded since his last run and this allied to the step up in trip is expected to bring about further improvement and if that’s proven to be the case, he stands a verry good chance of landing this at 2/1 BOG, probably at the main expense of Sheriff of Nawton who has already proved he stays the full mile and a half and also has winning form here at Doncaster this season.
Sheriff of Nawton was 2nd and 3rd in back to back 1m4f handicaps at Wolverhampton in February as a warm up for his turf campaign, which he opened with a comfortable 6 lengths victory here at Doncaster over 1m 2.5f at the end of March, before a narrow defeat at Newcastle three weeks ago. He’s clearly in good heart and has to be respected on his 2015 form so far and at 4/1 BOG might be a little overpriced.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Provenance / Comedy King @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : Paddy, Coral & Betfair SB)
Provenance / Sheriff of Nawton @ 14/1 (2/1 & 4/1 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Tigrilla/ Comedy King @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : Paddy & Coral)
Tigrilla/ Sheriff of Nawton @ 15.25/1 (9/4 & 4/1 : Bet365)