Stat of the Day, 2nd May 2015
Tarooq once again proved he wasn’t comfortable on turf as he got badly out paced in the first half of yesterday’s race and looked nothing like a 15/8 favourite.
However, the penny did finally drop and he produced a fair turn of speed to eat into the gap ahead of him, making up ground with every stride late on. It wasn’t enough, however and he (and we!) had to settle for third place, beaten by 2.5 lengths.
It’s a moot point, I suppose, but I was happier backing a 7/2 loser rather than a 15/8 one. At least we can claim to have got the value price, if nothing else!
So, May has started like recent months, with a loss. But I aim to make that back today in the…
A fillies’ Listed race over 1m4f, where I’ve backed William Haggas’ Arabian Comet at 6/1 BOG.
Mr Haggas’ record here at Goodwood is decent with 16 wiunners from 87 (18.4% SR) for 93.9pts (+107.9% ROI) since 2008 and in the last three years, he has had 10 winners from 36 (27.8% SR) for 24.9pts (+69.3% ROI), of which those priced at 6/4 to 13/2 are 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 15.5pts (+103.4% ROI).
Arabian Comet should have no problem with the trip, having won a Class 3 contest at Ascot and then was only beaten by a nose by stablemate Queen of Ice in Listed event at York with Queen of Ice going on to win another Listed race next time out. Arabian Queen has also finished second in a Group 3 race over 1m6f, but her stamina is no surprise as she’s a dughter of the prolific Dubawi.
Dubawi’s offspring have a record of 247 wins from 1480 runs, hitting roughly one winner in 6 (16.7% SR) and generating 205.3pts (+13.9% ROI) profit from blind backing, which is pretty good going.
What Dubawi does do, however, is breed stayers and his offspring running at trips beyond 1m2f are 63/290 (21.7% SR) for 184.1pts (+63.5% ROI) with those priced 12/1 or shorter winning 61 of 237 (25.7% SR) for 153pts (+64.6% ROI).
Arabian Comet holds several of her rivals on past form and provided she’s not rusty after 233 days off the track, looks decent vallue at 6/1 BOG. That price was with BetVictor, but you can also get the same offer at Hills and Coral, but please check that’s still the case by…
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