Stat of the Day, 4th May 2015
For the second time in as many days this month, our SotD runner was third on Saturday, as Arabian Comet failed in a bid to win the race from the very back of the pack.
It, quite possibly, wasn’t jockey Pat Cosgrave’s finest hour as he encountered trouble/lack of room twice on the run in, but I don’t think he was as bad as some people have made out and he certainly did his level best to get the horse home from a tight spot.
The end result was a third place finish at 11/2, slightly shorter than suggested and good E/W value for those who played it that way at my advised 6/1 BOG (I didn’t!). There is a camber at Goodwood that draws the horses into the rails, but to suggest our jockey ran up the inside as an error of judgement is a bit strange as all three placed horses came from the inside runners. That’s why I watch the races with the commentary turned off!
Anyway, mini-moan over, let’s turn our focus to Bank Holiday Monday and the…
A one mile Class 4 handicap where you can get 3/1 BOG about Mister Musicmaster, a 6yr old gelding trained by Ron Hodges and ridden by Luke Morris.
…Ron Hodges has a record of 15 wins from 83 runners (18.1% SR) in handicaps here at Bath, since the start of the 2011 season, producing level stakes profits of 3.9pts at an ROI of 4.7%.
Now, whilst the bare figures are fairly modest, it would appear that the market is usually a fair guide to the chances of Ron’s horses here, as all 15 winners have come from the 51 runners in the 6/4 to 8/1 price bracket with that 29.4% strike rate generating profits of 35.9pts at an ROI of 70.4%.
…Luke Morris also has a good recent record here at Bath, winning 14 of his 75 (18.7% SR) handicaps here in the last two seasons, producing profits of 10.3pts (+13.7% ROI) and like Ron above, he performs better on the shorter priced runners with 11 winners from 25 (44% SR) and 8.14pts profit (+32.6% ROI) from horses priced at 4/1 or shorter.
…Mister Musicmaster, was only beaten by a neck staying on well over 7 furlongs at Wolverhampton a week ago and with a 3/10 record over a mile allied to the way he finished last time out suggests that the step back up in trip today will suit.
He’s also backed up by the fact that since 2010, Ron Hodges’ horses running within 4 to 15 days of a top 4 finish last time out are 31/155 (20% SR) for 58.3pts (+37.6% ROI) profit. Those now running in handicap company are 30/144 (20.8% SR) for 58.4pts (+40.6% ROI).
Of these 144 runners, those now priced 7/4 to 6/1 are 25/70 (35.7% SR) for 68.4pts (+97.7% ROI), whilst those who didn’t win last time out, but were beaten by less than 3 lengths are 13/44 (29.6% SR) for 52.9pts (+120.2% ROI).
Those beaten by less than 3 lengths and now running at odds of 7/4 to 6/1 are 11/23 (47.8% SR) for 41.3pts at an ROI of 179.3%.
As of 11.30pm on Sunday evening, 3/1 BOG was the best price available for Mister Musicmaster and I’ve gone with Bet365, but at least five other firms were offering the same price, as you’ll see by…
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