Double Dutch, 4th May 2015
Saturday was better than Friday, but still no winning double. Comfort was provided in the form of Sheriff of Nawton’s fine 9/2 victory at Doncaster, leading home our other runner Comedy King and securing a 12.9/1 forecast in the process for those playing the exotics.
Unfortunately for the double, Provenance had alreadsy been beaten into third place in a tight finish (beat by sh & nk) at 9/4 an hour earlier at Goodwood, which ultimately proved the diffference between a 2pt loss and a 16.88/1 double!
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Provenance : 3rd at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Tigrilla: 7th at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Sheriff of Nawton : WON at 9/2 (adv 4/1)
Comedy King : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
The forecast paid £13.91 here!
Results to date:
563 winning selections from 1968 = 28.61%
176 winning bets in 510 days = 34.51%
P/L : +95.04pts (+9.32% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Five UK meetings and two in Ireland to aim at on a busy Bank Holiday Monday, so let’s take these…
And the 7/4 BOG favourite Bold Lass, who has never been out of the first two home on the Flat in five starts (12121), she was beaten by just a length on her only effort ovcer course and distance, but that was on good to soft ground, but now she’s back on good to firm, where her record reads 1211. Aside from that C&D defeat, she won her only other race over a mile.
And with conditions ideal for her today, the question is would she run well fresh after an 8 month break? Well, Bold Lass reappeared this time last year after 208 days off the track and was a staying-on runner-up beaten by just a length over 7f and looking to need further. She’s the one to beat here for me, but as an alternative, I’m going to gamble upon Khatiba‘s ability to transfer her recent good A/W form to the turf.
She’s already 0/5 on the Flat, but has been there or thereabouts (42332) in five starts last “summer”. However since her last flat outing at Brighton in September, she’s 1216 on the A/W, with the 6th place being on Champions Day at Class 2 after 4 months off, so no disgrace there. She does have experience of winning at a higher grade than this, just 2 starts ago and as such, there might well be some value in a 5/1 BOG bet on Khatiba.
The Brian Harding / Nicky Richards team are a potent force and in Duke of Navan, they have a very live chance here at 2/1 BOG with Coral. He was useful over timber, winning three of seven starts, but since to chasing six months ago has finished 1F221 with the only blot being a fall under pressure in a grade 2 contest at Cheltenham, this of course isn’t that good a race and the fall doesn’t seem to have dented his confidence.
He’s up 8lbs for his most recent run, but that was a 6 lengths victory at Ayr in a Listed race 16 days ago, when he was clear from a fair way out and could have won by much further, had that been desired. He drops back down to Class 2 racing today and a run of similar standard to last time should be far too much for his rivals here today and 2/1 BOG is probably a nice price for Duke of Navan based on form.
Of his four opponents, Bellenos probably just about shades it for another formidable outfit, Team Skelton. Harry & Dan are amongst the winners yet again and although this horse is a little unreliable/erratic, there’s no doubting his ability. He was 4th in a big-field valuable grade 3 event at Aintree last time out and has also got a decent run in Listed class under his belt.
Last summer, he failed by just a short head to land a £26,000 first prize at Ascot, beating several subseuqent winners home and whilst I wouldn’t be too confident about his chances at 7/2 BOG as a single bet, Bellenos is ideal as a backup, should anything go wrong for the favourite.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Bold Lass / Duke of Navan @ 6.91/1 (7/4 & 15/8 : Paddy)
Bold Lass/ Bellenos @ 11.38/1 (7/4 & 7/2, Boylesports, Stan James & BetVictor)
Khatiba / Duke of Navan @ 16.25/1 (5/1 & 15/8 : Betfred & Totesport)
Khatiba / Bellenos @ 26/1 (5/1 & 7/2: Betfred, SkyBet & Totesport)