Stat of the Day, 5th May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th May 2015

We opened our May account at the third time of asking as Mister Musicmaker was a pretty comfortable winner by three lengths going away from the pack after hitting the front with a furlong to run. It was a very pleasing performance enhanced by a fairly large drift out to an SP of 5/1, when I was happy to take 3/1.

Don’t get me wrong, 5pts is very welcome, but he was never a 5/1 shot! He’s also set to go again at Bath today, but I’m averse to going back to a horse again so quickly for SotD (but he could well win), so instead we’re Devon-bound for the…

6.50 Exeter:

Where Robert Walford’s 8yr old gelding Brody Bleu is rated a 100/30 BOG chance on his bid to land a four-timer in the space of 6 weeks in this Class 3 handicap chase over 2m 3.5f on good to firm ground.

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The trainer…

…Robert Walford has a decent record in NH handicaps in his short training career to date, with 20 winners from 93 (21.5% SR) producing level stakes profits of 18.7pts at an ROI of 20.1%. He has got off to a great start to 2015 with a record of 11 winners from 32 (34.4% SR) and 23.7pts (+74% ROI) profit and his figures here at Exeter are 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 6pts (+31.6% ROI)

His handicap chasers are 15/45 (33.33% SR) for 20.5pts (+45.4% ROI), of which there were 4 winners from 10 (40% SR) here at Exeter producing 15pts (+150% ROI) profit and his overall tally for 2015 so far is 9 winners from just 22 (40.9% SR) handicap chasers, generating 16.1pts (+73.1% ROI) profit.

The horse…

Brody Bleu has won each of his last four starts, the most recent of which was at Chepstow 11 days ago over this 2m 3.5f trip at this same Class 3 level, when he stayed on well to win by four lengths. He’s also a former course and distance winner here at Exeter, which is a positive.

Former Exeter C&D winners returning to this track off the back of a win (anywhere!) LTO have gone on to win 13 of 51 (25.5% SR) handicap contests since 2008, producing 44.7pts profit at an ROI of 87.6%.

Another stat in his favour is that male, Class 3 handicap chasers aged 6 to 9 yrs old who were winners of a handicap chase LTO in the previous 11 to 150 days won again on 118 of 552 (21.4% SR) for 178.8pts (+32.4% ROI) profit.

In addition to fitting both of those microsystems, Brody Bleu has some impressive data of his own to support his nomination…
…he’s 5/15 over fences and has a 312 record here at Exeter with that win being a course and distance affair (1/2 over C&D, also third!). He’s also 1/1 on good to firm ground and has finished 3111 in his four efforts at 19.5/20 furlongs so far.

He has won 5 of 11 races of 5 to 8 runners for profits of 8.1pts (+73.6% ROI) and has a record reading 112111 when sent out 11 to 16 days after his last run with those five winners rewarding his followers with 13.1pts of profit at an ROI of 218.3%!

As of 12.30 am in the early hours of Tuesday, 100/30 BOG was the best price available for Brody Bleu and my bet has been placed with BetVictor, but the same price is available with Coral, as can be seen by…

…clicking here for the betting on the 6.50 Exeter

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Here is today’s racecard.

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