Stat of the Day, 5th May 2015
We opened our May account at the third time of asking as Mister Musicmaker was a pretty comfortable winner by three lengths going away from the pack after hitting the front with a furlong to run. It was a very pleasing performance enhanced by a fairly large drift out to an SP of 5/1, when I was happy to take 3/1.
Don’t get me wrong, 5pts is very welcome, but he was never a 5/1 shot! He’s also set to go again at Bath today, but I’m averse to going back to a horse again so quickly for SotD (but he could well win), so instead we’re Devon-bound for the…
Where Robert Walford’s 8yr old gelding Brody Bleu is rated a 100/30 BOG chance on his bid to land a four-timer in the space of 6 weeks in this Class 3 handicap chase over 2m 3.5f on good to firm ground.
…Robert Walford has a decent record in NH handicaps in his short training career to date, with 20 winners from 93 (21.5% SR) producing level stakes profits of 18.7pts at an ROI of 20.1%. He has got off to a great start to 2015 with a record of 11 winners from 32 (34.4% SR) and 23.7pts (+74% ROI) profit and his figures here at Exeter are 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 6pts (+31.6% ROI)
His handicap chasers are 15/45 (33.33% SR) for 20.5pts (+45.4% ROI), of which there were 4 winners from 10 (40% SR) here at Exeter producing 15pts (+150% ROI) profit and his overall tally for 2015 so far is 9 winners from just 22 (40.9% SR) handicap chasers, generating 16.1pts (+73.1% ROI) profit.
…Brody Bleu has won each of his last four starts, the most recent of which was at Chepstow 11 days ago over this 2m 3.5f trip at this same Class 3 level, when he stayed on well to win by four lengths. He’s also a former course and distance winner here at Exeter, which is a positive.
Former Exeter C&D winners returning to this track off the back of a win (anywhere!) LTO have gone on to win 13 of 51 (25.5% SR) handicap contests since 2008, producing 44.7pts profit at an ROI of 87.6%.
Another stat in his favour is that male, Class 3 handicap chasers aged 6 to 9 yrs old who were winners of a handicap chase LTO in the previous 11 to 150 days won again on 118 of 552 (21.4% SR) for 178.8pts (+32.4% ROI) profit.
In addition to fitting both of those microsystems, Brody Bleu has some impressive data of his own to support his nomination…
…he’s 5/15 over fences and has a 312 record here at Exeter with that win being a course and distance affair (1/2 over C&D, also third!). He’s also 1/1 on good to firm ground and has finished 3111 in his four efforts at 19.5/20 furlongs so far.
He has won 5 of 11 races of 5 to 8 runners for profits of 8.1pts (+73.6% ROI) and has a record reading 112111 when sent out 11 to 16 days after his last run with those five winners rewarding his followers with 13.1pts of profit at an ROI of 218.3%!
As of 12.30 am in the early hours of Tuesday, 100/30 BOG was the best price available for Brody Bleu and my bet has been placed with BetVictor, but the same price is available with Coral, as can be seen by…
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