Stat of the Day, 6th May 2015
Back to back wins for SotD, as Brody Bleu notched his fourth in a row, thanks to some enterprising riding and a driving finish from Daryl Jacob allied to some resilience from the horse himself in refusing to be beaten.
He’d had to make all the running in the absence of any pace, but when he was joned by two rivals at the last, it looked like game over. However, one didn’t jump well and the other never seems to show much late on and the stage was et for our boys to get back up by a neck.
The only blot on the horizon was the 20p in the £ Rule 4 deduction reducing our 10/3 bet down to 8/3, but I’d rather have 2.67pts in the bag than nothing and we still beat SP.
Wednesday suddenly produces an opportunity for a hat-trick in the…
Where I’ve just taken what looks a rather large 9/2 BOG from Coral for Ultimatum du Roy in this 3m2f handicap chase on soft ground. I was expecting him to be around half the price.
He’s trained by Alex Hales whose handicap chasers priced from 5/2 to 11/1 since 2009 have won 20 of 124 races, a 16.1% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 22.1pts at an ROI of 17.9% and in Ultimatum du Roy, he has a very consistent performer.
UdR is 431212 over fences thios year and all at today’s Class 4 level and he has wins on good to soft, soft and heavy ground, so we should be covered either way here. He has won at 3m1f and has shown signs of wanting further and he has finishes of 1212 under Noel Fehily…
…who has fared really well in the last couple of seasons here at Uttoxeter winning 15 of his 46 races (32.6% SR) for 26pts (+56.4% ROI) profits, with all 15 winners coming from the 37 runners (40.5% SR) priced at 9/1 or shorter with the resultant 35pts profits equating to 94.5% of all stakes.
UdR lost by a length when staying on behind Ballyvoneen at Huntingdon over 3m1f five weeks ago aa a short-priced (5/6!) favourite. he was making up ground all the time and probably needed a little more yardage to win the race, suggesting the extra furlong will help him today.
Horses sent off at odds on prices and then get beaten quite often quickly make up for their defeats next time out and since 2010, chasers beaten at odds on last time out and who have then rested for at least 10 days to get over the race, have then come back to win next time out on 65 of 206 (36.6% SR) occasions, producing level stakes profits of 53.4pts at an ROI of 26%
If, like me, you believe there’s a good chance of this happening again, then you can have 9/2 BOG with Coral about Ultimatum du Roy and they’re the standout price here. As always, do check that’s still the case by…
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