Stat of the Day, 7th May 2015
As expected, Ultimatum du Roy shortened in the market to become the 3/1 favourite from our advised 9/2, but we had to settle for second best on this occasion. He ran well under a very patient ride from Noel Fehily and looked to have every chance approaching the penultimate fence.
Unfortunately he landed a little awkwardly, the saddle slipped and Noel lost his irons and any chance of winning. He did his level best to get going again and having seen the leader make a bit of a mess of the last whilst not under pressure, you’d have to think we’d have had the winner but that for that one mistake.
As it was, our runner failed to concede a stone to the winner and was beaten by just under four lengths. Just one tricky-looking flat meeting on Thursday (has the Flat season started yet?), so we’re off for twilight jumping again in the…
Another 3m2f chase, this time it’s a Class 3 event on good ground where Jennie Candlish’s Basford Ben looks appealing at 4/1 BOG.
He’s going for a hat-trick of wins over course and distance to enhance his record of 3 wins from 7 here at Carlisle prior to this race. He’s 3/4 at today’s 3m2f trip, all of which were over this course and distance so he certainly knows his way around these parts, finishing 2111.
Henry Brooke rode him for the first time last time out, when they were successful by three lengths 33 days ago. All four of Basford Ben’s career victories have come in races of 10 or fewer runners and also at odds of 8/1 or shorter.
In fact in races of 10 or fewer runners at odds of 8/1 and shorter he has 4 wins from 10 (40% SR) for level stakes profits of 13.91pts (+139.1% ROI).
It’s also worth pointing out that in addition to his profile suiting this contest, male handicap chasers aged 6 to 9 who were winners of a handicap chase last time out by two to ten lengths more than 10 days earlier have the following records , provided they’ve not been inactive for any more than 5 months…
Overall since 2008 : 244/1069 (22.8% SR) for 272.4pts (+25.5% ROI)
Of which, Class 3 runners are : 119/554 (21.5% SR) for 180.2pts (+32.5% ROI)
Class 3 at 3 miles and beyond : 48/237 (20.3% SR) for 119.7pts (+50.5% ROI) and…
…Class 3 runners at 3 miles and beyond who last ran 11 to 35 days ago are 41/172 (23.8% SR) for 130.9pts (+76.1% ROI) profit.
Based on the general profile of the horse in relation to the race and also the stat about returning handicap chasers, this looks a good opportunity for Basford Ben to complete the hat-trick and Bet365 amongst others are offering 4/1 BOG against it happening. If you want to join me, please check that’s still the best price by…
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