Stat of the Day, 8th May 2015
Basford Ben certainly ran his race yesterday, but just ran out of steam late on and faded out of contention in the closing stages.
He was sent off at the same 4/1 odds as we’d advised and raced fairly prominently if a little wide throughout, before dropping away to 4th place from 2 out.
A switch away from jumping for Friday’s pick who runs in the…
A Class 5 handicap over 7 furlongs and a 5/2 BOG bet on Gary Moore’s Freddy with a Y, who runs under a 6lb penalty for a win in a similar contest at Brighton on Tuesday.
Gary Moore’s record in Class 4 & 5 flat handicaps at odds of 5/4 to 7/1 reads as 53 winners from 234 runners (22.7% SR) for 42.6pts (+18.2% ROI) since 2008, which bears well for this race.
Officially, Freddy with a Y is up 6lbs (OR) for that win earlier in the week, but the booking of a 5lb claimer negates most of that rise and confidence in the selection is buoyed by the following stat, which is far less complicated than it looks…
…Horses who won last time out (1 to 5 days ago) and now run at a trip no more than 1 furlong (up or down!) different, at the same class or 1 higher and off a mark 0 to 7lbs higher than last time out are 178/542 (32.8% SR) for 94.9pts (+17.5% ROI).
With today’s race in mind, that 178/542 can be broken down as follows :
Those priced 7/4 to 13/2 : 102/327 (31.2% SR) for 123.6pts (+37.8% ROI)
Running at same class as LTO : 127/360 (35.3% SR) for 72.7pts (+20.2% ROI)
Running at the same trip as LTO : 133/404 (32.9% SR) for 69.9pts (+17.3% ROI)
OR 6lbs higher than LTO : 108/341 (31.7% SR) for 67.7pts (+19.9% ROI)
And those, like Freddy with a Y, running as the same class and trip as last time out, off a mark 6lbs higher than last time and now priced at 7/4 to 11/2 are 29/97 (29.9% SR) for 33.6pts (+34.6% SR)
We’re not going to rich off the back of this selection, but I think we’ve a great chance of collecting from a 5/2 BOG bet on Freddy with a Y today and I’ve placed my bet with Bet365, but several other bookies are offering the same price, as you’ll see by…
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