Stat of the Day, 9th May 2015
We got back to winning ways on Friday, as Freddy with a Y just about got home by a head after what can only diplomatically be called a strange looking ride by Hayley Moore.
She seemed to have plenty of horse under her at the one pole, but she really never looked comfortable/settled in the saddle and came very close to throwing away a race in which the market felt she was unbeatable, having backed the horse in from our advised 5/2 to an SP of 5/4.
She may well have got herself a winner, but Hayley also picked up a one day ban for her riding, but that’s not really our concern! Our attentions instead will turn towards Saturday’s…
I often get a bit bogged down trying to find a suitable candidate on Saturdays for SotD, due to the large number of possible selections and the very competitive nature of the day. So, with this in mind, I’m going to keep it really simple with a decent looking horse in a decent standard of race and a 3/1 BOG bet on William Haggas’ Tadqeeq.
Mr Haggas is actually a trainer to follow in flat handicaps, both long-term and in more recent history too, as can be seen by his record of 209 winners from 994 runners (21% SR) for 185pts at an ROI of 18.6% since the start of the 2008 season, whilst since 2012 he is 108/407 (21% SR) for 91.2pts (+19.2% ROI), so you can see the consistency achieved.
At odds of 7/4 to 7/1, he is 150/562 (26.7% SR) for 163.9pts (+29.2% ROI) since 2008 and 80/286 (28% SR) for 92.3pts (+32.3% ROI) since 2012.
At trips of 8.5 furlongs or shorter, his runners are 122/587 (20.8% SR) for 131pts (+22.3% ROI), whilst since 2012 those figures are 70/299 (23.4% SR) for 81.9pts (+27.4% ROI)
Here at Haydock, his handicappers are 10/43 (23.3% SR) for 8.75pts (+20.4% ROI), whilst those sent off at odds of evens to 7/1 since the start of the 2012 season are 5/19 (26.3% SR) for 7.73pts (+40.7% ROI).
I personally think that those numbers alone warrant a bet on Tadqeeq, but the horse is no mug either. He hasn’t, admittedly, won as many times as she should have done so far in his short career, but finishes of 52132 show a level of ability and consistency and he hasn’t been beaten by far in his last two outings since stepping into handicap company.
He was beaten by three parts of a length on his handicap debut, but that was a Class 2 race (C3 today) on soft ground after a break of over six months and he only relinquished second when wandering slightly close to home. He then proceeded to lose by a nose in a similar manner, whilst conceding 8lbs at Ripon just over three weeks ago and had he kept at it, he would surely have hung on.
Third time lucky, one hopes, in handicap company today and in a bid to improve concentration/finishing, he’ll be sporting cheekpieces for the first time and William Haggas’ runners in first-time cheekpieces are 10/61 (16.4% SR) for 30.2pts (+49.4% ROI) profit since 2012.
One last thing is that jockey Dane O’Neill is 7/18 on ther Haggas runners priced at 4/1 or shorter in the last two seasons.
At present 3/1 BOG is the best price available for Tadqeeq and this is offered by both PaddyPower and Betfair Sportsbook, I’d advise the latter, because if he wins at 3/1 or higher, you’ll get yourself a free bet. But do check the very latest odds by…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS